612
FXUS63 KTOP 302238
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
538 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR AREAS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS THAT HAVE YET TO EXPERIENCE
FREEZING CONDITIONS.
- DRY AND COOL THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING UP SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
SUNSHINE HAS RETURNED WITH SURFACE RIDGING IN CONTROL OF THE REGION!
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESIDES ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, THE OVERALL AIRMASS REMAINS COOL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S. ELEVATED WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE ALONG WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN WAS OBSERVED LAST NIGHT, BUT STILL SUPPORTIVE OF
FROST FORMATION. THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCED
FREEZING CONDITIONS LAST NIGHT, BUT AREAS FROM HOLTON TO HERINGTON
REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO FROST CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT, HAVE ISSUED A
FROST ADVISORY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE YET TO EXPERIENCE FREEZING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE OF THE
SEASON.
A POTENT CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE US ON
FRIDAY, SHUNTING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED, SUFFICIENT LIFT IN SATURATED MID-LEVELS
COULD GENERATE LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CHANCES ARE
CURRENTLY LESS THAN 15%, BUT RECENT CAM RUNS ARE HIGHLIGHTING THIS
POTENTIAL. SUBSEQUENT UPDATES MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN, MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. LOWS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 30S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY AROUND 50
DEGREES. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TOWARDS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. HIGHS WARM A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY, REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S BY MONDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
FURTHER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BEFORE YET ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
KEEP THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE RELATIVELY DRY. 10KT TO 15KT OF WIND
JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR
INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER PREVENTING NEAR GROUND SATURATION. 12Z
HREF HAD PROBABILITIES FOR VSBY LESS THAN A MILE AROUND 10%
WITHIN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW
UNRESTRICTED VSBY. SO THE FORECAST ONLY HAS SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...WOLTERS
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