501
FXUS63 KTOP 311053
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
553 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT THIS EVENING BRINGS A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS, FOLLOWED BY
COOLER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM SUNDAY INTO MID-WEEK, WITH HIGHS
NEAR 70 BY WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
CURRENTLY A QUIET HALLOWEEN MORNING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. THIS HAS ONCE AGAIN ALLOWED
MOST SPOTS TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S. (WITH MOST PLACES
SEEING TEMPERATURES AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING THESE LAST COUPLE
MORNINGS, AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY THIS MORNING'S FROST ADVISORY
WILL BE THE LAST OF THE SEASON.) LOOKING AT THE BIGGER PICTURE,
AN UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST, WITH LONGWAVE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS. WITHIN THIS
BROADER TROUGH THERE ARE TWO EMBEDDED UPPER LOWS - ONE OVER NEW
YORK AND ANOTHER OVER THE DAKOTAS. THE DAKOTAS UPPER LOW WILL
DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, PUSHING A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 60, BUT STEADILY DROP THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. MID- LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY ALSO LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH FOR A BAND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT THESE TO BE
BRIEF, AND TO QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BE A RATHER CHILLY DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF
NEAR FREEZING AND STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. CLEAR AND
CALM CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON THUS
FAR IN MANY LOCATIONS. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER FOLLOWING THIS CHILL, A
WARMING TREND TAKES HOLD AS LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB TO NEAR 70 BY MID-WEEK, ALONG
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A FAST-
MOVING WAVE AROUND TUESDAY, BUT THE LOW-AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE WAVE
AND A GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE MAKES PRECIPITATION UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME. SOME HINTS AT A STRONGER/DEEPER WAVE BY NEXT THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT FAR OUT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP A BIT BY LATE MORNING, BUT
GENERALLY STAY 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE,
VFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH PERHAPS A VERY BRIEF
SPRINKLE OR SHOWER THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCES WILL STAY SOUTHEAST OF
THE MAIN TERMINALS THOUGH.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...REESE
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