506
FXUS63 KTOP 312246
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
546 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME BRIEF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING (20% CHANCE);
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES TURN COOLER FOR SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
UPPER AIR PATTERN DEPICTS A COMPACT LOW MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST, CURRENTLY OVER MN AS OF 19Z. A RIDGE IS NOSING INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER WAVE LOOKS PRETTY DIFFUSE AS IT STRETCHES INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION, BUT IT APPEARS TO HAVE AT LEAST MADE
ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN KS WITH SOME BREEZIER WINDS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. MID-LEVEL LIFT DRIVEN BY FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO
INCREASE AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WHICH LOOKS TO PRODUCE A
BAND OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS ALONG THE 850MB FRONT. MOISTURE QUALITY
ISN'T EXACTLY STELLAR, SO MOST PRECIP WOULD PROBABLY EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
BETTER SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR A SHORT TIME PERIOD THIS
EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST. ANY RAIN THAT DOES REACH THE GROUND LIKELY
WOULDN'T LAST VERY LONG OR AMOUNT TO MUCH, BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED
IF TRICK-OR-TREATERS FEEL SOME LIGHT RAINDROPS FOR A BRIEF TIME.
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD TAKE OVER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FEATURE SLOWLY
SLIDES EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS
LIMITING HIGHS TO NEAR 50 DEGREES, IF THAT, AS SOME LOCATIONS STAY
IN THE 40S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
WELL, WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING THE ENTIRE AREA TO FALL
TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING.
FROM THERE, THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
INCREASING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
FLATTEN BY THIS POINT OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS, LEAVING NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT IN OUR AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLE CLUSTER
ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT IN HIGH HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSISTING
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. ALL THIS POINTS TO A WARMING TREND INTO
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S RETURN ON SUNDAY,
AND A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE 850MB WINDS SHOULD HELP WITH THAT
AS WELL. A FEW 70S MIGHT BE OBSERVED BY TUESDAY. A COUPLE OF DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE NEXT BEST RAIN CHANCE LOOKING TO
ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK. EVEN SO, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH
AND TIMING OF THAT WAVE, SO POPS ARE LIMITED DUE TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 546 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS OCCURRING AND CAUSING A BAND OF LIGHT
RADAR RETURNS OVER THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS
HAS TO THIS POINT LIMITED THESE RETURNS TO VIRGA AS OBS SHOW
CIGS AROUND 8KFT AND SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20 DEGREES
OR BETTER. THERE MAY BE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING, BUT
THINK THE IMPACTS FROM THIS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE AND WILL KEEP
A MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE FORCING LOOKS TO
MOVE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR OVERNIGHT UNTIL A DECK OF STRATOCU DEVELOPS SATURDAY
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LEADING TO SOME BKN CIGS BY THE LATE MORNING.
INITIALLY THE CIGS COULD BE MVFR, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST KS.
BUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY, CIGS ARE
FORECAST TO LIFT ABOVE 3KFT. MODELS KEEP THE STRATOCU FIELD
AROUND UNTIL THE LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO SHALLOW UP TOWARDS SUNSET.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...WOLTERS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page