096
FXUS63 KTOP 011726
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1226 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A PROMINENT UPPER LOW
PIVOTING SOUTHWARD OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA. THIS IS KEEPING
NORTHERLY FLOW AND CAA IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. SO
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A SOLID 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY, STRUGGLING TO HIT 50 IN MOST SPOTS. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES SOUTHWARD.
CAN'T EVEN COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OVER FAR EASTERN KS,
BUT THE BETTER CHANCES WILL REMAIN EASTWARD INTO MISSOURI NEARER TO
THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SUNDAY MORNING
STILL LOOKS LIKE ONE OF OUR COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH, SO BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN
CLOSER TO THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF GUIDANCE - GENERALLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S.
BY THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF THE AREA, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN AS BROAD RIDGING
BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR AVERAGE SUNDAY AND ABOVE AVERAGE BY
MONDAY. ZONAL FLOW WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS PERSISTS THROUGH MID-
WEEK. WEAK FAST-MOVING PERTURBATIONS MAY BRING A FEW WEAK FRONTS
THROUGH THE AREA, BUT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL NEVERTHELESS
PERSIST. HIGHS SHOULD STAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S EACH DAY,
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S. STILL INDICATIONS OF A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER AND DEEPER TROUGH BY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE. FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
SCT-BKN STRATUS AROUND FL035 MAY FLIRT WITH FL030 BUT WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN SHOULD KEEP ANY OF THIS
VERY BRIEF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BRINGS LIGHT
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST BUT SOUTH WINDS RETURN LATE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...POAGE
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