646
FXUS63 KTOP 020521
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1221 AM CDT SUN NOV 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST.
- COOL TONIGHT BUT WARM NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SHALLOW STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHEAST IOWA, WITH
NORTH WINDS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER
50S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOSS OF MIXING AND DRYING SHOULD BRING
CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING THROUGH.
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE RATHER STRONG AROUND 06Z THOUGH SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME CIRRUS LATE TONIGHT
AS WELL. DESPITE THIS, HAVE STILL GONE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE AROUND 12 C FROM
THIS AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT REDUCED MIXING DEPTHS SHOULD
KEEP SUNDAY'S HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
THE MAIN JET TO THE NORTH. SREF AND NBM TEMPERATURE SPREADS ARE
RATHER SMALL THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH NBM HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE
HIGHER END OF ITS SPREAD SEEMING TO BE REASONABLE GIVE LIMITED
CLOUDS AND DECENT MIXING. WEAK FRONTS PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE VERY LIMITED ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO DOMINATE. UNCERTAINTY IN TROUGH STRENGTH AROUND
THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY INCREASES BUT REASONABLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS MAY
BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES AND GRASSES MAY BEGIN TO CURE AFTER RECENT
AND EXPECTED COLD NIGHTS, THROUGH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS DON'T
LOOK TOO CONCERNING AND KEEP FIRE DANGER MUTED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN NOV 2 2025
SHALLOW FOG HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT AT KTOP OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS, WITH AT TIMES VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4 MILE BUT AT TIMES
ABOVE 5 MILES. THIS BACK AND FORTH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE,
THOUGH GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO DROP. KFOE AND KMHK MAY ALSO SEE SOME GROUND FOG AT TIMES, THOUGH
LIKELY NOT AS MUCH AS KTOP. OTHERWISE, THE NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT
INCREASE TO AROUND 8-10 KTS DURING THE DAY.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...REESE
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