507
FXUS63 KTOP 020804
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
204 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
KEY MESSAGE
- CHILLY START TODAY, BUT WARM AND DRY FOR REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
WITH SURFACE RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE OZARKS, CLEAR AND
CALM CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THIS HAS ALLOWED
FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S, ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICALLY
COOLER LOWER-LYING LOCATIONS. SOME VERY PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IS ALSO
PRESENT IN THESE LOCATIONS. FARTHER WEST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS,
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO BECOME REESTABLISHED ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. SO TEMPERATURES HAVEN'T DROPPED QUITE AS
MUCH HERE. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST, SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. COUPLED WITH PLENTY OF SUN,
THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR 60 BY MID AFTERNOON.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS BROAD RIDGING
BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS WILL SUPPORT
PERSISTENT QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, KEEPING MILD
TEMPERATURES AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE UP
AND DOWN A BIT, BUT OVERALL WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S FOR
HIGHS, AND IN THE 40S FOR LOWS. A FEW LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, EACH PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER THE LOW-AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE SYSTEMS
AND LACK OF QUALITY MOISTURE ARE KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN NOV 2 2025
SHALLOW FOG HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT AT KTOP OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS, WITH AT TIMES VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4 MILE BUT AT TIMES
ABOVE 5 MILES. THIS BACK AND FORTH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE,
THOUGH GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO DROP. KFOE AND KMHK MAY ALSO SEE SOME GROUND FOG AT TIMES, THOUGH
LIKELY NOT AS MUCH AS KTOP. OTHERWISE, THE NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT
INCREASE TO AROUND 8-10 KTS DURING THE DAY.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...REESE
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