459
FXUS63 KTOP 021741
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1141 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHILLY START TODAY, BUT WARM FOR REST OF THE WEEK.
- STAYING DRY, NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
WITH SURFACE RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE OZARKS, CLEAR AND
CALM CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THIS HAS ALLOWED
FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S, ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICALLY
COOLER LOWER-LYING LOCATIONS. SOME VERY PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IS ALSO
PRESENT IN THESE LOCATIONS. FARTHER WEST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS,
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO BECOME REESTABLISHED ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. SO TEMPERATURES HAVEN'T DROPPED QUITE AS
MUCH HERE. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST, SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. COUPLED WITH PLENTY OF SUN,
THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR 60 BY MID AFTERNOON.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS BROAD RIDGING
BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS WILL SUPPORT
PERSISTENT QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, KEEPING MILD
TEMPERATURES AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE UP
AND DOWN A BIT, BUT OVERALL WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S FOR
HIGHS, AND IN THE 40S FOR LOWS. A FEW LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, EACH PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER THE LOW-AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE SYSTEMS
AND LACK OF QUALITY MOISTURE ARE KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT 10 TO 15 KTS, GUSTING 20
TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO SUNSET. IT APPEARS THAT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DECOUPLE AHEAD OF A WIND SHIFT TONIGHT,
CAUSING WINDS TO BE LESS THAN 5 KTS AS THEY VEER FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. THIS COULD CREATE A FEW HOURS OF MARGINAL LLWS WITH A 35
TO 40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ, MAINLY PRIOR TO 07Z. THERE IS ALSO A
LOW CHANCE (10-15%) OF SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN NEAR KTOP
AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. THIS IS NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...TEEFEY
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