985
FXUS63 KTOP 030411
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1011 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL BRING WIND SHIFTS TO THE AREA,
BUT LIKELY NO RAIN.
-COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
PLEASANT FALL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD, BEGINNING TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
WITH SUNNY SKIES. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES DIP INTO MID/UPPER 30S TONIGHT
BUT RECOVER NICELY INTO THE MID 60S TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH A WAA PATTERN TAKING TEMPS INTO THE
LOW 70S.
SUBSEQUENT SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
EVERY OTHER NIGHT WITH THE NEXT ONE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER THURSDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE FREQUENCY OF
BOUNDARIES, THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENCE TO SENSIBLE CONDITIONS
DAY-TO-DAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS EACH FRONT, ALONG WITH QUICK WIND
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH. THUS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE UP AND
DOWN SLIGHTLY EACH DAY THROUGH THE WORKWEEK, BUT WILL MAINLY STAY IN
THE 60S. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN LOW (LESS THAN 10%) WITH EACH
PASSING FRONT DUE TO LIMITED TIME FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
WEAK ASCENT WITH EACH PASSING BOUNDARY. A STRONGER, MORE POLAR
BASED FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH MODEL
SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES IS QUITE HIGH AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES FROM THE PREV FORECAST. THE 00Z HREF
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FG POTENTIAL IN THE RIVER VALLEY AT ABOUT
10 PERCENT, WHILE MOS AND THE MAJORITY OF OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS
FAIL TO GENERATE ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. SO THERE ARE NO PLANS
TO INCLUDE FG IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PROFILERS SHOW THE
LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 40KT. THIS IS FORECAST TO ONLY LAST A FEW
MORE HOURS UNTIL THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES IN AND THE JET
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TEEFEY
AVIATION...WOLTERS
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