299
FXUS63 KTOP 030848
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
248 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
- STILL NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS, WITH THE MAIN JET STREAM TO OUR NORTH. WITHIN
THE NORTHERN STREAM, A STRONGER JET STREAK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
IS PUSHING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. HOWEVER WITH LITTLE UPPER
SUPPORT HERE AND THE BROAD RIDGING IN PLACE, THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SO EVEN WITH NORTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE,
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ACTUALLY BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, IN
THE MID 60S FOR MOST. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES FOR TOMORROW.
HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 70S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED.
OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, THIS PATTERN WILL REPEAT A COUPLE
MORE TIMES. WEAK AND LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PASS TO
OUR NORTH, SENDING MUTED FRONTS INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH LITTLE UPPER FORCING OR MOISTURE,
EXPECTING BOTH OF THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES TO STAY DRY, THOUGH CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME BRIEF SHOWERS WITH THE THURSDAY NIGHT
FRONT. TEMPERATURES SEE-SAW A BIT WITH EACH FRONT, BUT OVERALL STAY
QUITE MILD, WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S EACH DAY.
BY THE WEEKEND, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INCREASINGLY PERSISTENT IN A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL HELP TRANSITION THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
TOWARDS A DEEPER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. AS A RESULT, THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY. STILL DOESN'T LOOK LIKE MUCH
OF A CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM EITHER, AS 90% OF ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES FROM THE PREV FORECAST. THE 00Z HREF
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FG POTENTIAL IN THE RIVER VALLEY AT ABOUT
10 PERCENT, WHILE MOS AND THE MAJORITY OF OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS
FAIL TO GENERATE ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. SO THERE ARE NO PLANS
TO INCLUDE FG IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PROFILERS SHOW THE
LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 40KT. THIS IS FORECAST TO ONLY LAST A FEW
MORE HOURS UNTIL THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES IN AND THE JET
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...WOLTERS
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