808
FXUS63 KTOP 032303
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
503 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS
WEEK.
-A STRONG COLD FRONT COULD BRING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LATER
THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S, LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. CIRRUS
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AS THAT WAVE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS CO AND
OVER NE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TONIGHT AS OUR WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER AND SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURE A BIT MORE ELEVATED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
GUSTY WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE
BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW TO NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE
OF GUIDANCE GIVEN A STRONG WAA PATTERN AND WARMING AT 850MB.
THAT PUTS FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEASTERN KS TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THAT BOUNDARY,
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. THE PATTERN WILL
REPEAT ITSELF WITH WEDNESDAY SIMILAR TO TODAY AND THEN A LITTLE
WINDIER AND WARMER ON THURSDAY AS SOUTH WINDS RETURN. THE NEXT
IN A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A
MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER, THERE WILL
STILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENCE IN CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
UNDER SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW COLD IT
MIGHT GET LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHEN A DEEPER TROUGH AXIS AND LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE DROPS IN FROM CANADA. LONG RANGE MODELS STILL SHOW
A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD ON TEMPERATURES FOR THAT TIMEFRAME,
BUT THINKING IS THAT CONDITIONS COULD BE QUITE A BIT COOLER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 503 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
A DRY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SETTING UP EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND IN THE KS RIVER
VALLEY AND A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 40KT. FOE SHOULD BE A
LITTLE MORE MIXED. SO HAVE SOME WIND SHEAR IN THE FORECAST FOR
TOP AND MHK. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT AROUND
15Z AND THE RISK FOR WIND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TEEFEY
AVIATION...WOLTERS
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