246
FXUS63 KTOP 040854
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
254 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
- FEELING MUCH CHILLIER BY SUNDAY BEHIND A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE THIS MORNING, WE CONTINUE TO SEE FAST,
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS, ATOP BROAD RIDGING TO THE
SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST,
ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. WITH THE
RESULTING WAA AND GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, HIGHS SHOULD EASILY
CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY. TONIGHT, A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SHUNT A WEAK COLD FRONT
SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT WILL BE A BIT
COOLER TOMORROW, BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
FOLLOWING A BIT OF A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY, A SIMILAR
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING IN ANOTHER SLIGHT
DIP IN TEMPS FRIDAY. SOME MEAGER, JUST-IN-TIME MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE
AHEAD OF THIS SECOND FRONT, SO CAN'T RULE OUT SOME VERY BRIEF AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FAR EASTERN KS. OTHERWISE, WE STAY DRY THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK.
BEHIND THE THURSDAY NIGHT SYSTEM, TWO ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL
PASS NEARBY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA. MEANWHILE, RIDGING WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC. AS OPPOSED TO THE
PREVIOUS MORE ZONAL FLOW, THIS WILL ACT TO CARVE OUT A NOTABLE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DEEPER
WITH THIS TROUGH NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY, ALLOWING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE REGION. SO HAVE DROPPED
TEMPERATURES COLDER FOR THIS PERIOD, AND ADDITIONAL LOWERING MAY BE
NEEDED AS CONFIDENCE FURTHER INCREASES IN A BRIEF BUT POTENT SHOT OF
DRY, CANADIAN AIR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE PREV FORECAST. CONCERNS REMAIN FOR
SOME WIND SHEAR AT TOP AND MHK WITH A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER
AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WHILE A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES TO AROUND 40KT. BETTER MIXING IS FORECAST AT FOE WHICH
IS NOT IN THE RIVER VALLEY. SO WILL KEEP WIND SHEAR OUT FOR NOW.
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD INHIBIT GROUND FOG FORMATION AT TOP TUESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE A DRY AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN
PLACE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...WOLTERS
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