531
FXUS63 KTOP 041052
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
452 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
- FEELING MUCH CHILLIER BY SUNDAY BEHIND A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE THIS MORNING, WE CONTINUE TO SEE FAST,
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS, ATOP BROAD RIDGING TO THE
SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST,
ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. WITH THE
RESULTING WAA AND GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, HIGHS SHOULD EASILY
CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY. TONIGHT, A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SHUNT A WEAK COLD FRONT
SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT WILL BE A BIT
COOLER TOMORROW, BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
FOLLOWING A BIT OF A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY, A SIMILAR
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING IN ANOTHER SLIGHT
DIP IN TEMPS FRIDAY. SOME MEAGER, JUST-IN-TIME MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE
AHEAD OF THIS SECOND FRONT, SO CAN'T RULE OUT SOME VERY BRIEF AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FAR EASTERN KS. OTHERWISE, WE STAY DRY THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK.
BEHIND THE THURSDAY NIGHT SYSTEM, TWO ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL
PASS NEARBY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA. MEANWHILE, RIDGING WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC. AS OPPOSED TO THE
PREVIOUS MORE ZONAL FLOW, THIS WILL ACT TO CARVE OUT A NOTABLE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DEEPER
WITH THIS TROUGH NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY, ALLOWING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE REGION. SO HAVE DROPPED
TEMPERATURES COLDER FOR THIS PERIOD, AND ADDITIONAL LOWERING MAY BE
NEEDED AS CONFIDENCE FURTHER INCREASES IN A BRIEF BUT POTENT SHOT OF
DRY, CANADIAN AIR.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 450 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
WIND SHEAR HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO AT ALL
TAF SITES AS SURFACE WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AND THE LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION HAS WEAKENED. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE A BIT MORE THROUGH LATE MORNING, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20-23 KTS. WINDS THEN WEAKEN TO AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT, STAYING
SOUTHWEST UNTIL A COLD FRONT AND NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT APPROACHES
AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...REESE
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