730
FXUS63 KTOP 042235
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
435 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL
AROUND SUNSET.
-MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
-MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US AND LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN BETWEEN WERE ALLOWING FOR A WARM NOVEMBER DAY WITH MANY
SPOTS IN THE LOW 70S. THE BREEZY WINDS COMBINED WITH RH VALUES
AROUND 40 PERCENT ARE CREATING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. H5 ANALYSIS HAS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE REGION AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN, CANADA.
THAT SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL SOUTHEAST AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. THAT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY, AND A CAA PATTERN IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM WILL
BUMP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS AROUND 60
DEGREES.
SOUTH WINDS RETURN ON THURSDAY, TAKING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR 70
DEGREES. IN THE MEANTIME, ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS WILL DEVELOP
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, EVENTUALLY BRINGING YET ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT. BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THAT FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP,
BUT BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. THUS, HAVE KEPT
POPS AROUND 10% IN FAR EASTERN KS, AND LOWER WEST. A MORE
IMPACTFUL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONUS. CLUSTER
ANALYSIS AT H5 IS SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS PATTERN
EVOLVING, AND TEMPERATURE SPREAD HAS DECREASED FOR THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY A LARGE CANADIAN
SURFACE RIDGE, BUT NONETHELESS, MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 435 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. WIND SHEAR
CHANCES TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE LOW WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING TURBULENT MIXING KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
DECOUPLING.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TEEFEY
AVIATION...WOLTERS
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