824
FXUS63 KTOP 052317
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
517 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK.
- MUCH COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS
WEEKEND.
- NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING, A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON AWAITS. TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S UNDER PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE, BUT A BREEZY
NORTH WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COOLER THAN THIS. EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES DROPS
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S, BUT EVERYONE SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TO THE EAST, WHILE MODEST RIDGING
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 5 AND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE TO BE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 60S. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE 40S ARE
TO BE EXPECTED AS WELL. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN
END BY THIS WEEKEND.
LATE ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, A DIGGING TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
SINK SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE BROADER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS REINFORCING SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. DESPITE
THIS, MILD TEMPERATURES MAY HOLD ON FOR MORE AFTERNOON BEFORE
PLUNGING. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL UPWARDS OF 40 DEGREES BY SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THIS STRONG COLD FRONT. BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S WILL GREET THOSE WHO HEAD OUT DURING THE
MORNING. AT THIS TIME, THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE A DRY FRONT. THE
GREATEST ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPING US DRY,
BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IF A SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH
DEVELOPS. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES COULD MATERIALIZE IF
THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH. THE COLD WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
SUNDAY INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S TO NEAR 50 CAN BE EXPECTED. COLD MORNINGS IN THE TEENS AND
20S ON MONDAY MORNING AND 30S ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL NECESSITATE A
HEAVY WINTER COAT ALSO. THE GOOD NEWS IS A RETURN TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ENJOY THE MILD WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS!
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH A FEW MINOR ISSUES WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED. WINDS WILL VEER THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST WITH A
MODEST NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET FORMING THEN SOME GUSTINESS AFTER
17Z. BRIEF, MINOR LLWS IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE AROUND 11Z. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH THE LLJ COULD BRING IN ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
SOME LOWER STRATUS THOUGH EVEN IF THIS WOULD OCCUR THE CHANCES
FOR LIMITING CIGS ARE LOW.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK/OAX
AVIATION...POAGE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page