824
FXUS63 KTOP 010441
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1041 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EXPECTED BEGINNING TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH 1-3" OF SNOW
EXPECTED.
- BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS TO NORTHERN TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON, USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES
ONLY REACHING INTO THE 20S. WHILE WINDS HAVE RELAXED FROM WHAT
THEY WERE YESTERDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, A BRISK 5-10 MPH WIND HAS
HELD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS THROUGH THE DAY. JUST ENOUGH LIFT
IN THE STRATUS DECK HAS SQUEEZED OUT SOME FLURRIES THROUGH THE
DAY, BUT THE STRATUS IS ERODING AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE MANY MORE
FLAKES FALLING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THE COLUMN
SATURATES FROM THE TOP DOWN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SOME DRY
AIR BETWEEN 700-900MB THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME. AN INITIAL BAND
OF SNOW DRIVEN BY WAA IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS SALINA AND MANHATTAN,
PERHAPS EVEN AS FAR EAST AS TOPEKA AND LAWRENCE. THIS BAND WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 1". THE AFOREMENTIONED ROCKIES SHORTWAVE
EJECTS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INCREASES
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BY 5-6 AM, SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FEW HOUR PERIOD AT MOST
LOCATIONS WHERE THE DGZ DEEPENS TO 8-10KFT WITH GOOD LIFT AND
SATURATION TO SUPPORT HIGHER SLRS (AROUND 15:1) AND ENHANCED
SNOWFALL RATES. HREF MEMBERS SHOW SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.50-0.75" PER
HOUR WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SNOW, ALTHOUGH THIS IS LARGELY LIMITED TO A
2-3 HOUR WINDOW FOR ANY ONE LOCATION. THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS
SOUTHEAST OF I-35 WHERE SATURATION IS SLOWER TO OCCUR AND THE
HEAVIEST SNOW MAY ONLY BE FALLING FOR AN HOUR WITH JUST LIGHT SNOW
OTHERWISE. WITH SLRS EXPECTED TO EXCEED CLIMATOLOGY, THE QPF
FORECAST IS THE MAIN DRIVER BEHIND TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS EVEN
A CHANGE OF A FEW TENTHS IN QPF WILL BE MAGNIFIED IN SNOW TOTALS BY
THE SLRS. THE HREF, LREF, AND NBM ALL HIGHLIGHT THE 0.1-0.2" QPF
RANGE AS THE MOST LIKELY, WITH A FEW OUTLIERS ON BOTH THE HIGH AND
LOW ENDS. THIS PRODUCES A WIDESPREAD SWATH OF 2-3 INCHES NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 35 AND 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 35. THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT REACH THE 4" THRESHOLD, ESPECIALLY ANY
LOCATION IMPACTED BY BOTH THE OVERNIGHT ROUND OF SNOW AND THE
DAYTIME SNOW BAND. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN ALL OF THE AREA
RECEIVING SOME SNOW (0.5" OR MORE), MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
SWATH OF 2-3" OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA, AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 4". HAVE BUMPED UP THE START TIME OF THE
ADVISORY TO MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE FASTER TIMING OF THE INITIAL BAND
OF SNOW, ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS WILL NOT SEE
SNOW UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE AREA AS, EVEN THOUGH
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 35, IT IS
THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THE SEASON AND COULD COME DOWN
FAIRLY QUICKLY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
SNOW COMES TO AN END MONDAY EVENING AS THE WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST,
LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE. LOW-LEVEL WINDS BRIEFLY BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS IN A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS FAVORED TO BE DRY, BUT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW-
NORMAL WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOW 20S AND
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO END THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER
BUT HAVE SLIGHTLY DELAYED THE ONSET OF SNOW DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. STILL EXPECT CIGS
TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE MARGINAL CATEGORY. SNOW LIKELY BEGINS TO
FALL BETWEEN 08-10Z WITH VIS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO IFR THEN
LIFR CATEGORY RANGES INTO THE EARLY AND MID MORNING HOURS. THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL STILL EXPECTED JUST AFTER SUNRISE INTO MID-
MORNING TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD ALIGN WITH THE LOWEST VIS
CATEGORIES AND CIGS MAY ALSO DIP INTO IFR CATEGORY DURING THIS
TIME. LOOK FOR STEADY IMPROVEMENTS INTO THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. WINDS
REMAIN UNDER 10KTS AND PROGRESSIVELY VEER TO THE WEST.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-
KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-
KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...DRAKE
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