328
FXUS63 KTOP 010942
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
342 AM CST MON DEC 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-A BATCH OF SNOW MOVES THROUGH TODAY, BRINGING BETWEEN 1.0" AND 4.0"
OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION.
-SNOW ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TONIGHT.
-DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH ANOTHER BITTER
COLD AIR MASS ARRIVING ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON DEC 1 2025
THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SNOWFALL
TODAY, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHTLY LATER ONSET ACROSS FAR EASTERN KS THIS
MORNING. AN INITIAL NORTHWARD MOVING BAND OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED VERY
EARLY THIS MORNING, AROUND 8Z, OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF KS,
WHERE A QUICK INCH COULD ACCUMULATE. ELSEWHERE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WERE SHOWING A 2KFT LAYER OF DRY AIR CENTERED AROUND 850MB, AND
RADAR TRENDS WERE SHOWING THE MAIN BATCH OF SNOW DEVELOPING IN
WESTERN KS, JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY
SATURATE THAT DRY LAYER AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL KS BY 10-12Z,
SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
STILL SHOWING SEVERAL HOURS OF ASCENT WITHIN A DEEP DGZ LAYER, AND
MODELS HINT AT POSSIBLE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING AROUND I-70 THROUGH
MIDDAY. HREF, NBM AND LREF ALL STILL SHOW AVERAGE QPF RANGING FROM
0.10" TO 0.20", AND WITH FORECAST SLR'S GENERALLY AROUND 16:1, TOTAL
SNOWFALL BETWEEN ABOUT 1.0" AND 4.0" INCHES REMAINS MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR. THE HIGHER SIDE OF THAT IS EXPECTED NEAR AND NORTH OF I-70
WHERE 2.0" TO 4.0" IS EXPECTED, WHILE A GENERAL 1.0" TO 2.0" IS
ANTICIPATED SOUTH OF I-70. RADAR TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH
THE DAY FOR ANY BANDS THAT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
UNTIL 6 PM, ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY ALLOWING SOME ZONES TO BE CANCELED FROM THE
ADVISORY EARLY. IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM INCLUDE SLICK ROADWAYS,
SIDEWALKS AND DRIVEWAYS, AND VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.
LUCKILY, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AND WIND CHILL WILL NOT
BE MUCH OF A FACTOR.
BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO SNOWPACK AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LOWS COULD DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN FAR
NORTHERN KS, AND TO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE ELSE. SOUTH WINDS RETURN ON
TUESDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S AND
POSSIBLY THE LOW 40S IN CENTRAL KS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY. A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR FOLLOWS THE FRONT, MAKING THURSDAY ONE OF THE
COLDEST DAYS OF WEEK DESPITE SUNNY SKIES. NBM HAS LOW POPS ON FRIDAY
IN EAST-CENTRAL KS AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW ON PRECIPITATION OCCURRING LATE
THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER
BUT HAVE SLIGHTLY DELAYED THE ONSET OF SNOW DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. STILL EXPECT CIGS
TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE MARGINAL CATEGORY. SNOW LIKELY BEGINS TO
FALL BETWEEN 08-10Z WITH VIS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO IFR THEN
LIFR CATEGORY RANGES INTO THE EARLY AND MID MORNING HOURS. THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL STILL EXPECTED JUST AFTER SUNRISE INTO MID-
MORNING TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD ALIGN WITH THE LOWEST VIS
CATEGORIES AND CIGS MAY ALSO DIP INTO IFR CATEGORY DURING THIS
TIME. LOOK FOR STEADY IMPROVEMENTS INTO THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. WINDS
REMAIN UNDER 10KTS AND PROGRESSIVELY VEER TO THE WEST.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-
KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-
KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...TEEFEY
AVIATION...DRAKE
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