029
FXUS63 KTOP 011131
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
531 AM CST MON DEC 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-A BATCH OF SNOW MOVES THROUGH TODAY, BRINGING BETWEEN 1.0" AND 4.0"
OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION.
-SNOW ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TONIGHT.
-DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH ANOTHER BITTER
COLD AIR MASS ARRIVING ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON DEC 1 2025
THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SNOWFALL
TODAY, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHTLY LATER ONSET ACROSS FAR EASTERN KS THIS
MORNING. AN INITIAL NORTHWARD MOVING BAND OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED VERY
EARLY THIS MORNING, AROUND 8Z, OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF KS,
WHERE A QUICK INCH COULD ACCUMULATE. ELSEWHERE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WERE SHOWING A 2KFT LAYER OF DRY AIR CENTERED AROUND 850MB, AND
RADAR TRENDS WERE SHOWING THE MAIN BATCH OF SNOW DEVELOPING IN
WESTERN KS, JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY
SATURATE THAT DRY LAYER AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL KS BY 10-12Z,
SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
STILL SHOWING SEVERAL HOURS OF ASCENT WITHIN A DEEP DGZ LAYER, AND
MODELS HINT AT POSSIBLE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING AROUND I-70 THROUGH
MIDDAY. HREF, NBM AND LREF ALL STILL SHOW AVERAGE QPF RANGING FROM
0.10" TO 0.20", AND WITH FORECAST SLR'S GENERALLY AROUND 16:1, TOTAL
SNOWFALL BETWEEN ABOUT 1.0" AND 4.0" INCHES REMAINS MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR. THE HIGHER SIDE OF THAT IS EXPECTED NEAR AND NORTH OF I-70
WHERE 2.0" TO 4.0" IS EXPECTED, WHILE A GENERAL 1.0" TO 2.0" IS
ANTICIPATED SOUTH OF I-70. RADAR TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH
THE DAY FOR ANY BANDS THAT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
UNTIL 6 PM, ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY ALLOWING SOME ZONES TO BE CANCELED FROM THE
ADVISORY EARLY. IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM INCLUDE SLICK ROADWAYS,
SIDEWALKS AND DRIVEWAYS, AND VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.
LUCKILY, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AND WIND CHILL WILL NOT
BE MUCH OF A FACTOR.
BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO SNOWPACK AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LOWS COULD DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN FAR
NORTHERN KS, AND TO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE ELSE. SOUTH WINDS RETURN ON
TUESDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S AND
POSSIBLY THE LOW 40S IN CENTRAL KS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY. A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR FOLLOWS THE FRONT, MAKING THURSDAY ONE OF THE
COLDEST DAYS OF WEEK DESPITE SUNNY SKIES. NBM HAS LOW POPS ON FRIDAY
IN EAST-CENTRAL KS AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW ON PRECIPITATION OCCURRING LATE
THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST MON DEC 1 2025
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY AND LIGHT SNOW HAS
ALREADY STARTED AT AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEAR SITES INTO
MID-MORNING. CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE IFR WITH
SNOW, BUT COULD VARY AS SNOW BAND INTENSITY VARIES THROUGH THE
DAY. SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON, AND LOW
STRATUS WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY
TONIGHT.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-
KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-
KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...TEEFEY
AVIATION...TEEFEY
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