002
FXUS63 KTOP 012302
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
502 PM CST MON DEC 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW ENDING BY EARLY EVENING.
- VARIABLE THOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DOMINATE THE
COMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON DEC 1 2025
BANDS OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL WAVE CONTINUE TO PASS OVER
EASTERN AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF MOST GUIDANCE THOUGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
SEEM TO BE LOWER, KEEPING AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH
RANGE. TROUGH AXIS WILL BE NEARLY EAST OF THE AREA BY 0Z SO 6
PM END OF THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN ORDER, WITH WESTERN AREAS
ALREADY SEEING SOME SUN.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND 5000 FEET BRINGS WARMER AIR IN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
ANTICIPATED LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREADS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
CONSIDERING THE VARYING SNOW FIELD IT WILL FLOW OVER. HAVE BUMPED UP
VALUES A BIT GIVEN THE WAA AND DECENT INSOLATION. THE NEXT UPPER
WAVE LOOKS TO SPLIT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND EAST FOR LITTLE OPPORTUNITY
FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN TRACE PRECIP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY THOUGH 850 MB TEMPS FALL BACK TO AROUND -8 C FOR A COLD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AIR TEMPS MAY APPROACH 0 F NEAR
THE NEBRASKA BORDER WITH THE 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS NEAR DAWN THURSDAY, THOUGH LIGHT WINDS KEEP
APPARENT TEMPS CLOSE TO THESE AIR TEMPS. TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SOMEWHAT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THOUGH ANOTHER SOMEWHAT WEAKER
FRONT COMES IN DURING THE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME
THOUGH WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. THE
UPPER PATTERN LOOKS TO SHIFT A BIT WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
POTENTIAL FOR WARMER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 457 PM CST MON DEC 1 2025
SKIES TRENDING CLEAR INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHICH MAY GIVE
WAY TO SOME EARLY SHALLOW PATCHY FOG. CONFIDENCE IN FOG
FORMATION IS AROUND 20 PERCENT RIGHT NOW SO NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15KTS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-
KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...POAGE
AVIATION...DRAKE
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