237
FXUS63 KTOP 051734
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1134 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE ANOTHER
BRIEF COLD SPELL ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY.
- STILL VERY LOW RAIN CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
KS, BUT OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
WE CONTINUE TO SEE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS,
WHILE A RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE MAINTAINED OVER THE PLAINS, WITH MULTIPLE FAST-MOVING, LOW-
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW.
RIGHT NOW, SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS RETURNED BEHIND OUR MOST RECENT
SYSTEM. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE
TODAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT HAS
LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY EVENING, THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST, WITH A SURFACE LOW
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP MOST
PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH, THOUGH CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME
BRIEF RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS. THE MAIN IMPACT THOUGH WILL BE A
STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA, MAKING SUNDAY ANOTHER
DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET BACK TO FREEZING.
WE'LL SEE A BRIEF WARMUP NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. THE TRACK OF THE 850 MB LOW WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR A SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
ROCKIES, GIVING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S
TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. EXACTLY HOW COOL IS A
QUESTION THOUGH, AS ENSEMBLE SPREAD QUICKLY INCREASES WITH THE
RE-DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH WIND CHANGES BEING THE MAIN
DRIVER OF THIS FORECAST, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WOULD LIKE
TO SEE MORE CONSISTENCY AMONG MODELS BEFORE INSERTING FOG
MENTION IN TAFS, SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW, BUT LATER SHIFTS
MAY WANT TO CONSIDER ADDING IF CONFIDENCE GROWS. OTHERWISE,
WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WSW
TO WEST, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THEY SHOULD
PICK UP FROM THE SSE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...PICHA
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