109
FXUS63 KTOP 061115
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
515 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW BRIEF/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS
EVENING, BUT OTHERWISE A DRY PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK.
- UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. WARMEST TODAY AND TUESDAY,
COLDEST SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING, WITH BROAD
TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. WE'RE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG START TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS, IN THE
VICINITY OF A MOSTLY DECAYED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAY. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING BOUNDARY MOISTURE, SHOULD SEE THIS FOG
EXPAND THROUGH SUNRISE. CAN'T RULE OUT NEEDING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
AT SOME POINT, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-35, BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS
OF <0.25 MILE VISIBILITY WILL STAY PATCHY. ANY FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY
LATE MORNING AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT,
ARRIVING THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE ATTACHED TO AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TREKKING ROUGHLY ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER. MOST OF THE MID-
LEVEL LIFT WILL STAY NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW, SO WHILE THERE SHOULD
BE SOME SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST KS, TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR LESS.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING SUNDAY, AND
FALL INTO THE TEENS FOR MONDAY MORNING. A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND
TAKES HOLD AFTER THAT THOUGH, AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM DIVING DOWN FROM WESTERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 40S FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE CLIMBING INTO THE 50S
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN TWO WEEKS FOR TUESDAY.
COLDER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BUILD BACK IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. THE BULK OF THE UNCERTAINTY IS TIED TO THE AMPLITUDE AND
POSITION OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH, AS SEVERAL MORE NOTABLE
DIGGING SHORTWAVES HELP IT RETROGRADE BACK FARTHER WEST. THE MORE
AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS BRING THE COLDEST AIR MORE SOUTHWARD, WHILE A
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. TO QUANTIFY THIS UNCERTAINTY, THE NBM
75TH-25TH PERCENTILE HIGH TEMPERATURE SPREAD IS A WHOPPING 20
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT ANY RATE, THE CHILLY NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL TEND TO LIMIT MOISTURE. SOME LOW CHANCES (<20%) FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW NEXT THURSDAY/FRIDAY, BUT NO NOTABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE ON THE HORIZON.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
FOG REMAINS SOUTH OF THE MAIN TAF SITES AS OF 11Z. THIS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THIS MORNING, THOUGH CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES IN THE RIVER VALLEY NEAR
KTOP. OTHERWISE, SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT, BRINGING IN NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-25
KTS AND AND LIKELY MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...REESE
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