594
FXUS63 KTOP 211059
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
459 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
DRY WEATHER PERSISTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
THE UPPER PATTERN HAS SEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LAST 24-36 HOURS
WITH ZONAL FLOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CONUS AND THE JET STREAM
STILL A LITTLE BIT NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE MAIN CHANGE IS THAT
YESTERDAY'S SHORTWAVE FROM CANADA HAS NOW PUSHED WELL EAST AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS PARKED ITSELF IN THE MID-SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY, HELPING TO
TURN WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE HIGH STILL NEARBY, WINDS
DON'T LOOK AS BREEZY TODAY AS THE LAST FEW DAYS AND TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION DOESN'T LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG, BUT WITH NO APPRECIABLE
CHANGE IN AIR MASS, WE CAN EXPECT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AS YESTERDAY
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
LEE SFC TROUGHING STARTS TO DEEPEN LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
PERTURBATIONS OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD HELP TO TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AREA AND MAY KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
DECOUPLING COMPLETELY, THEREFORE KEEPING TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. THEN THE WAA REALLY PICKS UP DURING THE
DAY MONDAY, HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. EVEN WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH PASSING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY, A
SIMILAR AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH INTO WEDNESDAY,
SO THE INCREASING HEIGHTS PLUS A THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER SURGE IN TEMPERATURES. CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY BOTH
HAVE HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 60S AND 70S. RECORDS CHRISTMAS EVE ARE
ACTUALLY WARM ENOUGH THAT WE'RE LESS LIKELY TO BREAK THOSE (NBM
CURRENTLY HAS A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THOSE RECORD
HIGHS.) COMPARED TO CHRISTMAS DAY, THE NBM STILL HAS A 50-60%
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING RECORD HIGHS AND A 10-30% PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING RECORD WARM LOWS. CHANCES FOR RECORD TEMPS THEN GO DOWN
AGAIN BY FRIDAY AS A MORE MEANINGFUL FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. SOME RECENT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FASTER AND IS STARTING TO
BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING, THOUGH ANY NOTABLE CAA
WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURE SPREADS BECOME
LARGER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON
SOLUTIONS. THE DIFFERENCES SEEM TO BE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTH OF A
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
ANOTHER OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. THOSE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT WE STILL LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL AND DRY REGARDLESS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 452 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH WIND BEING THE MAIN IMPACT TO
AVIATION. LIGHT SE WINDS EARLY SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON, LOOKING TO BE AT OR JUST OVER 10 KTS WITH TOP
LESS LIKELY TO MEET THAT THRESHOLD. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING, WHICH COULD OPEN THE DOOR
FOR LLWS IF SFC WINDS DON'T PICK UP AGAIN EARLY ENOUGH. A LLJ IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALOFT, BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH AND WHEN. WILL
LEAVE OUT MENTION OF LLWS FOR NOW AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS MONITOR.
ADDITIONALLY, MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME MVFR STRATUS COMING FROM
SOUTHEAST KS LATE IN THE PERIOD, BUT GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON
WHETHER THIS WILL ARRIVE AT TOP/FOE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OF
THIS PERIOD OR HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT PERIOD, OR IF THE LOWER CIGS
WILL STAY EAST OF TERMINALS ENTIRELY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
RECORD FORECAST NORMAL
DEC 24 HIGH TOPEKA 74 (2021) 70 42
CONCORDIA 68 (1889) 61 39
DEC 25 WARM LOW TOPEKA 50 (2019) 48 22
CONCORDIA 46 (1936) 41 20
DEC 25 HIGH TOPEKA 68 (1922, 2016) 70 41
CONCORDIA 64 (1950, 2016) 65 39
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...PICHA
CLIMATE...PICHA
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