780
FXUS63 KTOP 220453
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1053 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
- DRY WEATHER PERSISTS.
- TURNING COOLER NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWED A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC, OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
THE 19Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES, SOUTHWEST
ACROSS OK INTO NORTHWEST TX. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS WAS
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AND SURFACE WINDS WERE FROM THE
SOUTH. TEMPERATURE WERE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
TONIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY (THURSDAY):
THE EASTERN PACIFIC H5 TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT SLOWLY DIGS
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CA COAST. THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
AND BEGIN TO AMPLIFY. THE H5 RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE
PLAINS ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE H5 TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST SLOWLY
DIGS SOUTHEAST ONTO THE COAST.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 40 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE RETURN MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR LOW STRATUS
TO DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE. THE STRATUS WILL SLOWLY ERODE WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. GIVEN MORE INSULATION ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA,
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 60S. THE EASTERN COUNTIES MAY HOLD ON TO
THE LOWER STRATUS LONGER BUT THE LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD HELP HIGHS TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. AS THE H5 RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND LEE TROUGHING DEEPENS ACROSS THE THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO
WARM HIGHS ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON
CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S,
THERE MAY BE SOME MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HIGHS
AT TOPEKA WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGH OF 74 DEGREES.
CHRISTMAS DAY, STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP
TO WARM HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. RECORD HIGHS MAY BE SET
AT BOTH CONCORDIA AND TOPEKA. FORECAST HIGH AT CONCORDIA WILL
BE 68, WHICH WOULD BREAK THE OLD RECORD OF 65. FORECAST HIGH FOR
TOPEKA WILL BE 74, WHICH WOULD BREAK THE OLD RECORD OF 68.
THE SHORT RANGE AND EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST SHOWS THE MEAN HIGH FOR TOPEKA ON
CHRISTMAS DAY TO BE 73 DEGREES. THE 25TH PERCENTILE IS 70
DEGREES AND THE 75TH PERCENTILE IS 75 DEGREES. SO THERE IS
HIGHER CONFIDENCE TOPEKA WILL SET A RECORD HIGH ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONCORDIA WILL ALSO SET A
RECORD HIGH ON CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH A ENSEMBLE MEAN OF 69
DEGREES, 25TH PERCENTILE OF 62 DEGREES, AND A 75TH PERCENTILE OF
72 DEGREES.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE H5 TROUGH OFF THE WESTERN US COAST WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN US AND BEGIN TO SHEAR APART LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING DROPPING
HIGH BACK INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH. AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM SECTION OF THE WESTERN H5 TROUGH SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS CAUSING A STRONGER FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL AMPLIFY AS A SHORTER WAVE LENGTH TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TO PHASE WITH THE H5 TROUGH
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
SATURDAY, HIGHS MAY BE SET DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAY FALL THROUGH THE 40S AFTER FROPA. HIGHS
MAY BE AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWER
60S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. ALL THE STRONGER ASCENT
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CWA. I
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S, MUCH
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST AIR MAY REMAIN
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS MUTED IN STRATUS TIMING, CONSISTENCY,
AND HEIGHTS. LOW VFR STRATUS IS ALREADY INTO SE KANSAS WITH
MVFR LEVELS LAGGING INTO CENTRAL OK. WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR
EXPECTATIONS AROUND 12Z AT THIS POINT GIVEN SOME ISOLATED MVFR
STRATUS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS HAVE BACKED MORE THAN
EXPECTED IN RECENT HOURS, NECESSITATING INCLUSION OF LLWS
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z WHEN WINDS MAY VEER ENOUGH TO MITIGATE IT.
GUSTS STILL ON TRACK FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS AS STRATUS BREAKS
UP, BUT WEAKENING WINDS AND A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER GIVE
RISE TO BR OR FG CONCERNS NEAR THE END OF THIS FORECAST.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
RECORD FORECAST NORMAL
DEC 24 HIGH TOPEKA 74 (2021) 71 42
CONCORDIA 68 (1889) 62 39
DEC 25 WARM LOW TOPEKA 50 (2019) 52 22
CONCORDIA 46 (1936) 42 20
DEC 25 HIGH TOPEKA 68 (1922, 2016) 74 41
CONCORDIA 64 (1950, 2016) 68 39
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...POAGE
CLIMATE...GARGAN/PICHA
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