747
FXUS63 KTOP 221046
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
446 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THIS WEEK. HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS COULD BREAK RECORDS.
- FOG IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY MORNING. CHANCES VISIBILITIES FALL TO A
MILE OR LESS RUN FROM 50 TO 75 PERCENT RANGE.
- A COOL DOWN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON THE 08Z
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
SURFACE OBS HAD A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE MS RIVER. THIS
PATTERN FAVORED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND THE JET STREAM REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, LIMITS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ENERGY TO IMPACT THE AREA AND CAUSE WEATHER. THE
LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS TO BE THE CASE HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
SO PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN CLOSE TO ZERO. BUT THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTH CREATES SOME PROBLEMS FOR THE
FORECAST. FIRST IS THE STATUS THAT IS MOVING NORTH FROM OK AND
SLOWLY EXPANDING WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SUGGESTS THIS
STRATUS SHOULD HANG AROUND THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT.
WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. FOR NORTH CENTRAL KS, WHERE ONLY
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE
LOWER 60S. THEN TONIGHT MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KS TONIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT. AT THIS TIME, MODELS WANT TO KEEP THE BULK OF HIGH
CLOUDS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO DECENT CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE NAM
IS DISPLAYING IT'S TYPICAL COOL BIAS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
ROBUST SATURATION. BUT THE RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A GOOD SIGNAL FOR
FOG AND THE 00Z HREF HAS PROBABILITIES OF A MILE OR LESS IN THE 50
TO 75 PERCENT RANGE FOR EAST CENTRAL KS AND ALONG THE KS RIVER
VALLEY. HAVE INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL WANT TO REEVALUATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AND THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY. THE CHANCES
FOR FOG OR STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE
INVERSION OVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER EVOLVES, BUT WITH MODELS HOLDING
ONTO AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IT IS
SOMETHING TO CONSIDER.
MODELS SHOW LIMITED SPREAD IN TEMPS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AND POTENTIALLY RECORD WARM FOR CHRISTMAS DAY STILL
THE MOST LIKELY FORECAST. THE PREDICTABILITY IN THE MODELS
DIMINISHES BY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. BREAKS DOWN AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON HOW THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES. THROUGH FRIDAY THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE
TRACK OF ANY WAVES TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT THIS IS
PROGGED TO CHANGE THIS WEEKEND. INTERESTINGLY THE 12Z ENSEMBLE
CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES NEARLY EVENLY
DISTRIBUTED AMONG THE 4 CLUSTERS BY SATURDAY EVENING WHEN THE
OPERATIONAL SOLUTION WOULD HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG COLD
FRONT DIVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOWS THE ECMWF DOESN'T
REALLY FAVOR ONE OUTCOME OVER ANOTHER AND I WOULD EXPECTED TO SEE
CONTINUED VARIABILITY IN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS. IN ANY CASE THE
IMPACTS FROM THE UNCERTAINTY APPEAR TO BE LIMITED FROM A FORECAST
PERSPECTIVE. THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS FAIL TO DEVELOP ANY PRECIP
UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND LESS THAN 10
PERCENT OF THE 12Z ENSEMBLES GENERATE ANY QPF THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NBM SHOWS A COOLING TREND OF A LESSER MAGNITUDE THAN THE 00Z
ECMWF WOULD HAVE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS EVEN THE GFS WANTS TO
BRING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. SO WILL
STICK WITH THE BLENDED FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 446 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
STRATUS CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH AND MOST GUIDANCE HAS IT AS FAR
WEST AS MHK. SO WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THINK
THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE OVER DONE AND WILL BASE TIMING MORE ON
THE RAP SOUNDINGS WHICH HAS TOP AND FOE SCATTERING OUT BY 20Z. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL FOR SOME FG TUESDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS TO
BE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR RADIATION COOLING SO WILL GO AHEAD AND
INCLUDE SOME IFR VISIBILITIES AT THE TERMINALS WITH THE 00Z HREF
SHOWING PROBABILITIES OF A MILE OR LESS IN THE 50 TO 75 PERCENT
RANGE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
RECORD FORECAST NORMAL
DEC 24 HIGH TOPEKA 74 (2021) 68 42
CONCORDIA 68 (1889) 60 39
DEC 25 WARM LOW TOPEKA 50 (2019) 50 22
CONCORDIA 46 (1936) 42 20
DEC 25 HIGH TOPEKA 68 (1922, 2016) 73 41
CONCORDIA 64 (1950, 2016) 68 39
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...WOLTERS
CLIMATE...GARGAN/WOLTERS
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