458
FXUS63 KTOP 231738
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1138 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL KS WILL HAVE DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A QUARTER OF A MILE.
- WINTER LOOKS TO RETURN BY SUNDAY WITH A BIG COOL DOWN EXPECTED.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A GENERAL ZONAL PATTERN OR FLAT MID
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ON
SHORE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. SURFACE OBS SHOWED A WEAK TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH THE BETTER
DEWPOINTS STILL OVER THE OZARKS AND TO THE SOUTH.
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS NOT BEEN AS ROBUST INTO EAST CENTRAL KS AS
EARLIER FORECASTS HAD AND LATEST MODEL PROGS HAVE TRENDED LESS
WIDESPREAD WITH FOG. THERE IS STILL A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY NEAR BODIES OF WATER SO WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF FOG THROUGH MID MORNING. BUT THE IMPACTS MAY BE MORE ISOLATED.
FOR TONIGHT MODELS AGAIN TRY TO SHOW STRONG SATURATION IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A LITTLE MORE WIND IN THE
TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THIS MAY FAVOR MORE OF A STRATUS DECK
FORMING IF THERE IS SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. STILL THE 00Z
HREF HAS SOME DECENT PROBABILITIES AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR LOWER
VISIBILITIES. SO WILL INCLUDE A BROAD BRUSH OF PATCHY FOG INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT CONFIDENCE IN THERE BEING DENSE FOG IS LOW
GIVEN THE BETTER WINDS NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ALSO RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SHALLOW
INITIALLY.
MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
SLIPS SOUTH. AND THEN THERE ISN'T A WHOLE LOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY. STILL THINK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSOLATION
BY THE AFTERNOON FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. HIGHS
FROM THE NBM FOR CHRISTMAS DAY HAVE ALSO TRENDED A FEW DEGREES
COOLER. MODELS SHOW A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KS WHICH COULD AGAIN LIMIT WARM AIR ADVECTION. BASED ON 925MB
TEMPS HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MOST
PLACES.
ENSEMBLES AND THE NBM SHOW LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. IN FACT ONLY ABOUT 5 PERCENT OF THE 12Z
ENSEMBLES DEVELOP ANY PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED AT ALL. THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS NOW IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF
THIS WEEK WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
CONVERGED TOWARDS A SIMILAR IDEA WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY WITH A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE HAS THE FRONT PASSING DRY. THIS
ALL SEEMS TO BE WELL HANDLED BY THE NBM AND HAVEN'T MADE ANY
CHANGES. SO MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH A
NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
FOG HAS CLEARED ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL MOVE IN AGAIN LATER
THIS EVENING AS THE BL SATURATES AGAIN, USHERING IN ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR FOG AND IFR (POSSIBLE LIFR) CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE IN
FOG IS A BIT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING AS THERE MAY BE SOME MIXING
AT THE TOP OF THE BL THAT HELPS TO KEEP THINGS AS LOW STRATUS.
KEPT MENTION OF IFR VIS AT ALL SITES WITH IFR CIGS AND CAN WORK
THAT DOWN IF CONFIDENCE IN FOG INCREASES. FOR THE END OF THE
TAF, THINGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT A BIT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING,
BUT THERE ARE SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT KEEP A DECK OF
STRATUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. OPTED TO GO
WITH A SCATTERED GROUP FOR THE LOW CEILINGS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CHANGES AND THE NEED FOR A CIG RESTRICTION WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
RECORD FORECAST NORMAL
DEC 24 HIGH TOPEKA 74 (2021) 67 42
CONCORDIA 68 (1889) 61 39
DEC 25 WARM LOW TOPEKA 50 (2019) 42 22
CONCORDIA 46 (1936) 37 20
DEC 25 HIGH TOPEKA 68 (1922, 2016) 69 41
CONCORDIA 64 (1950, 2016) 62 39
DEC 26 HIGH TOPEKA 67 (2008) 67 41
CONCORDIA 64 (1959, 2008) 66 39
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ040-KSZ054-
KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
CLIMATE...DRAKE/WOLTERS
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