547
FXUS63 KTOP 240436
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1036 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- NEAR-RECORD HEAT BUILDS IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- COOLDOWN RETURNS SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS, WARM AND SUNNY
CONDITIONS HAVE PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
THAT SAID, THOSE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS HAVE SEEN LINGERING
FOGGY CONDITIONS. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S. THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY THE DEEPENING MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MORE ON THIS LATER. BY TONIGHT, MORE DENSE FOG
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA. WITH 40-50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WEAK EASTERLY
WINDS, THE BL OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN NEAR SATURATED, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS AREAS THAT DID NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO WARM MUCH THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS NORTH OF A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
WEAK OVERNIGHT. FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING, QUICKLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS
A MILE AND THEN PAST A QUARTER-MILE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE LOWEST 850MB THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THAT MAY ALSO HELP SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE, BUT
BEST CHANCES FOR THIS REMAIN ACROSS FAR EAST AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS
WHERE LIFT APPEARS THE BEST. ALL THIS SAID, CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH
ENOUGH (70%+) TO ISSUE ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST- CENTRAL KANSAS FROM MIDNIGHT TO 11 AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH IF CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD FOG INCREASES OVER THE COMING HOURS, BUT OPTED TO WAIT.
THERE MAY BE SOME TIMES OVERNIGHT WHERE 10-15MPH WINDS AT THE TOP OF
THE BL SCATTER FOG TO LOW STRATUS, BUT GIVEN THE DEEP SATURATION
THROUGH 925MB, NOT THINKING THIS WILL THROW TOO MUCH OF A WRENCH IN
FOG PRODUCTION. SREF GIVES AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 HAVE A 40-60%+ CHANCE
OF SEEING VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE WHILE SOME CAM PROBABILITIES
INCREASE THAT TO 70%+. THIS HELPED TO FURTHER INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO BURN OFF BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME STRATUS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON THAT COULD IMPACT TEMPERATURES A BIT, SO OPTED TO LOWER
MAXTS FOR WEDNESDAY BY A FEW DEGREES.
NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FURTHER EXPANDS AND DEEPENS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BUT IT DOES NOT BRING ANY COOLER LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES, SO NOT EXPECTING THIS TO IMPACT
AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST CHANGE COMES SUNDAY
AS A DIGGING ARCTIC UPPER LOW PHASES WITH A LOW OVER THE SOCAL
REGION. AS THIS TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY SUNDAY, A
STOUT BLAST OF COLD AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND A SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATRES MONDAY MAY BE REALIZED IN THE
MORNING WITH MINIMAL WARMING THROUGH THE DAY. LUCKILY, ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO
WARM UP A BIT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, CLOSER TO AVERAGE WITH DRY WEATHER
PERSISTING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
SATURATED LOW LEVELS WITH WEAK MIXING UNDER PLENTIFUL CIRRUS
MAKES AND OBSERVATION TIME SERIES BEING ANYTHING BUT CONSISTENT
MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST. FROM AVAILABLE DATA, STRATUS IS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN CENTRAL AND MOST OF EASTERN KANSAS BUT SOME
HOLES REMAIN AROUND TOP AND FOE. EXPECT THESE WILL FILL IN
RATHER QUICKLY IN THIS SETUP AND HAVE ONLY BRIEF TEMPO GROUPS
FOR ABOVE LIFR CONDITIONS WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS VERY POSSIBLE AT
LEAST AT TIMES THROUGH 15Z. IMPROVEMENTS IN TYPICAL DIURNAL
FASHION MAY NOT OCCUR AS SEEN IN EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS TUESDAY HAD HELD OFF OF VFR UNTIL 18-19Z. CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE AGAIN AFTER 02Z WITH WEAK WINDS AND GOOD BOUNDARY
MOISTURE IN PLACE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2025
RECORD FORECAST NORMAL
DEC 25 WARM LOW TOPEKA 50 (2019) 40 22
CONCORDIA 46 (1936) 35 20
DEC 25 HIGH TOPEKA 68 (1922, 2016) 68 41
CONCORDIA 64 (1950, 2016) 62 39
DEC 26 HIGH TOPEKA 67 (2008) 67 41
CONCORDIA 64 (1959, 2008) 64 39
DEC 27 HIGH TOPEKA 71 (1946) 67 41
CONCORDIA 63 (1928, 1976) 62 39
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ021-KSZ022-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ037-KSZ054-
KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...GRIESEMER
AVIATION...POAGE
CLIMATE...GRIESEMER
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