803
FXUS63 KTOP 241748
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1148 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TODAY FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
- CLOUDS AND FOG ARE FORECAST TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER
THAN EARLIER FORECASTS HAD.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD USHER IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST. SURFACE OBS PLACED
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTH UNDER A STOUT
INVERSION SEEN ON THE 00Z TOP RAOB.
MODELS SHOW A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
REASONABLE IF NOT LOW SPREADS FROM THE 12Z ENSEMBLES. SYNOPTICALLY
THE PATTERN IS RATHER BENIGN WITH UPPER RIDGING TODAY EVENTUALLY
BREAKING DOWN AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. THIS WAVE SHOULD BRING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO COOL THINGS OFF QUITE A BIT. LIMITED DYNAMICS AND DRY
MID LEVELS HAVE PRECLUDED THE MODELS FROM DEVELOPING ANY QPF WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUT THE 00Z ECMWF HAS STARTED TO SHOW SOME
LIGHT QPF ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. IT'S NOT HARD TO IMAGING SOME
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS CAUSING SOME LIGHT PRECIP IF MID LEVELS ARE
ABLE TO SATURATE. BUT THE 12Z ENSEMBLES SHOW CHANCES FOR DRY WEATHER
AT 90 PERCENT OR BETTER AND THE GFS MAINTAINS THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR.
SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER RUNS TO SEE IF IN FACT THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH DRY.
UNTIL THEN THE PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT MILD AND DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION UNDER THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION HAS THROWN A WRENCH INTO THE FORECAST WITH THE CLOUDS AND
FOG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ALL BUT THE GFS MAINTAIN THIS INVERSION
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY SUGGESTING IT IS GOING TO BE DIFFICULT TO
SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO
HANG ONTO THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND RETURN THE FOG
TONIGHT AND INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE SANTA WILL BE NEEDING
RUDOLPH'S SERVICES TO FIND HIS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO ALSO IMPACT TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ON CHRISTMAS. LIMITED
INSOLATION AND MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES WE'VE BEEN FORECASTING A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET
ABOVE THE SURFACE. IF THE SUN DOES BREAK OUT, WE COULD SEE HIGHS
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. THIS HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF OCCURRING ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ELSEWHERE, HAVE LOWERED HIGHS
INTO THE MIDDLE 50S AND LOWER 60S. WHILE STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL, IT
LOOKS LESS LIKELY WE WILL BE SETTING NEW RECORDS. BY FRIDAY MODELS
WANT TO DEVELOP A WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND. THIS COULD HELP TO BRING
SOME DRYER AIR IN AND HELP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIX DEEPER. SO HAVE
STAYED WITH THE MILD NBM TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
FOG IS BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND SHOULD
BECOME VFR VISIBILITIES AROUND 18-19Z. STILL COULD HAVE SOME
LINGERING BROKEN IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MAY
BOUNCE AROUND A BIT. FOG RETURNS LATER THIS EVENING WITH
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AGAIN FALLING TO LIFR. FOG SHOULD
AGAIN HOLD INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO
SCATTER OUT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 211 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
RECORD FORECAST NORMAL
DEC 25 HIGH TOPEKA 68 (1922, 2016) 62 41
CONCORDIA 64 (1950, 2016) 57 39
DEC 26 HIGH TOPEKA 67 (2008) 66 41
CONCORDIA 64 (1959, 2008) 68 39
DEC 27 HIGH TOPEKA 71 (1946) 67 41
CONCORDIA 63 (1928, 1976) 63 39
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
CLIMATE...WOLTERS
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