370
FXUS63 KTOP 251755
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1155 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG IS FORECAST TO LIFT AROUND MIDDAY. THE FOG MAY REDEVELOP
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY AND COOLS THINGS SHARPLY.
- THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KS AS THE FRONT PASSES SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST
COAST. SURFACE OBS HAD LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, BUT THERE WAS ALSO A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
KS INTO CENTRAL MO.
FOG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INVERTED TROUGH HAD BEEN HARD TO COME BY
WITH WARMER TEMPS AND SOME MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MODELS
THINK THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COOL
AND SATURATE ACROSS ANDERSON AND COFFEY COUNTIES BY 12Z. SO HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH NOON TODAY. OVERALL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION
REMAINING OVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE DAY SO DIURNAL WARMING
MAY BE WHAT CAUSES THE FOG TO LIFT. ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES,
THE NAM AND RAP KEEP A STRATUS DECK IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH. BUT FOR PARTS
OF EAST CENTRAL KS WHERE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOME GOOD AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE, HIGHS MAY BOUNCE BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S.
THE QUESTION FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING IS WHETHER FOG
REDEVELOPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PROGS OF SURFACE RH CERTAINLY
SUPPORT THIS IDEA. BUT MODELS ON A REGIONAL SCALE SHOW GENERALLY
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT WITH SOME WEAK DRY AIR
ADVECTION. THE CAMS ARE ALSO MORE MIXED ON WHETHER DENSE FOG
DEVELOPS WITH THE 00Z HREF PROBABILITIES VARYING FROM 30 TO 60
PERCENT. HAVE INCLUDED A BROAD BUSH OF PATCHY FOG AS CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS LOWER FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. IN ANY
CASE, BETTER WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD FINALLY MIX OUT SOME OF
THIS LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP EVERYONE SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
THE LOWER 70S.
THERE IS STILL REASONABLY NARROW SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLES FOR THE
WEEKEND COLD FRONT SO CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. BUT THE OVERALL TREND
HAS BEEN FOR A MORE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH TO SWING FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THIS IS ABOUT 12 HRS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS AND COULD ALLOW BETTER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO MAKE IT
INTO EASTERN KS. NOW SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE DEVELOPING QPF
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE 12Z ENSEMBLES
ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED SIGNAL FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY. SO THINK
THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FROM THE NBM ARE A GOOD START AT THIS
POINT. SO FAR MODELS SUGGEST THAT ALL THE PRECIP WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT ITSELF WITH LITTLE IF ANY QPF POST FRONTAL. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT A MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP EVENT, BUT THERE IS A SIGNAL
FROM THE GFS FOR INITIALLY SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
SATURATION BEHIND THE FRONT. SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AND
ANY POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM WINTRY WEATHER. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER TROUGH REMAINING PROGRESSIVE WITH A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING IN ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SHARP COOL DOWN BUT
THE GOOD NEWS IS THE SURFACE RIDGE DOESN'T STICK AROUND FOR LONG.
NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE. THE NBM HAS TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH DRY WEATHER THE MOST LIKELY FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
TAFS WILL BE MESSY FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS
SCATTING STRATUS AND FOG MOVES NORTH FROM CENTRAL KS. GENERAL
IDEA IN THE TAF IS THAT STRATUS WILL MIX OUT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, GRADUALLY MAKING IT TO THE TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
UNTIL THEN, VIS WILL JUMP AROUND FROM LIFR TO IFR, POSSIBLY TO
MVFR, BUT WITH LIFR AND IFR CIGS.
BY THIS EVENING, SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE TO REDEVELOP
AS WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST. DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE
WESTERN WINDS SHOULD STAVE OFF MOST CONCERNS OF WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG, BUT SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS (LIFR
AND IFR) CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRATUS SHOULD HOLD FOR MOST SITES UNTIL MID FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT TO VFR STATUS BY THE LATE TAF
PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
RECORD FORECAST NORMAL
DEC 25 HIGH TOPEKA 68 (1922, 2016) 62 41
CONCORDIA 64 (1950, 2016) 54 39
DEC 26 HIGH TOPEKA 67 (2008) 70 41
CONCORDIA 64 (1959, 2008) 70 39
DEC 27 HIGH TOPEKA 71 (1946) 68 41
CONCORDIA 63 (1928, 1976) 64 39
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
CLIMATE...GRIESEMER/WOLTERS
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