794
FXUS63 KTOP 260931
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
331 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG DIMINISHING BEFORE DAWN AND THEN PERHAPS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
- NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN
MUCH COOLER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES (LESS THAN 30%) REMAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
LOW-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW HAS SPREAD EAST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. MIXING INTO THE SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE FOG AND
STRATUS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL WATCH OBSERVATION, CAMERA, AND
SATELLITE TRENDS BUT ANTICIPATE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE
ON TIME. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF INSOLATION WITH VERY WARM AIR OFF THE
SURFACE TO BRING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA INTO THE
60S TO LOWER 70S.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
SOME CIRRUS BUT WEAKER WINDS LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS OFF
THE SURFACE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANOTHER FOG
ISSUE FROM DEVELOPING. HREF SUGGESTS SMALL CHANCES FOR FOG IN MAINLY
EASTERN AREAS. WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OUT AT THIS POINT BUT THIS WILL
NEED FURTHER WATCHING. HIGH CLOUD LOOKS TO THICKEN SOMEWHAT SATURDAY
BUT SEE LITTLE ELSE TO PREVENT ANOTHER WARM DAY. RECORD HIGHS BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY LOOK THREATENED.
A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES BEGIN TO IMPACT CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE REMAIN NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THESE
WILL BEHAVE, BUT THE MAIN ONE OF INTEREST TRACKS EAST OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. MODEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITH DECENT MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
A COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE BULK OF
SUNDAY WITH SOME BANDS OF MOISTURE IN MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AROUND
MIDDAY SUNDAY. OVERALL POPS HAVE FALLEN A BIT AND ANYTHING MORE THAN
VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED THOUGH THE RAPIDLY COOLING
COLUMN COULD SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW. WINDS SUNDAY LOOK RATHER
BREEZY AND COULD TOUCH ON ADVISORY LEVELS BRIEFLY.
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS MONDAY COLD BUT NORTHWEST FLOW
USHERS THIS EAST INTO THE MID WEEK. NBM TEMPERATURE SPREADS ARE
RATHER LARGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST BUT NEAR NORMAL NBM VALUES
SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
EXPECT DENSE FOG THROUGH AROUND 8 TO 10Z AT THE TERMINALS WITH
VLIFR. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE FOG TOWARDS
12Z. BY MID MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITONS
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
RECORD FORECAST
DEC 26 HIGH TOPEKA 67 (2008) 66
CONCORDIA 64 (1959, 2008) 67
DEC 27 HIGH TOPEKA 71 (1946) 69
CONCORDIA 63 (1928, 1976) 63
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ036-KSZ037-
KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055.
DISCUSSION...POAGE
AVIATION...GARGAN
CLIMATE...GRIESEMER/POAGE
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