329
FXUS63 KTOP 261856
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1256 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD/NEAR RECORD WARMTH INTO SATURDAY
- TURNING SHARPLY COLDER WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS ON SUNDAY
- LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH CLOSER TO AVERAGE TEMPS
NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
THE FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE RECORD/NEAR RECORD WARMTH SHORT
TERM AND THEN ON THE ABRUPT CHANGE TO WINTER COMING ON SUNDAY.
A WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TROUGH PASSED THROUGH THIS
MORNING TAKING THE LOW CLOUDS WITH IT AND LEAVING A VERY WARM
AND SOMEWHAT DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SFC. HIGHS WILL REACH
NEAR RECORDS OR RECORDS TODAY WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND ONLY
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
THE WEAK HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH LIGHT WINDS GIVING WAY TO LIGHT ESE WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN CO. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE AS HIGH A RISK TONIGHT AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS
WITH BETTER MIXING/DRYING TODAY. THERE STILL COULD BE PATCHY FOG
IN LOW LYING AREAS/RIVER BOTTOMS BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG.
ON SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST
WITH ESE WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTH WITH AN EFFECTIVE WARM
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE CURRENT LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS MO COULD BUILD BACK SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AND THIS COULD PROVE CHALLENGING FOR THE MAX TEMP
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA WHERE THERE COULD
BE MORE CLOUD COVER TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY. WILL NOT MAKE
SIG CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR HIGHS WITH LOW/MID 60S NORTH
TO AROUND 70 SOUTH FOR TOMORROW.
BY SAT NIGHT 50KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP AND EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
ELEVATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN AT LEAST MODEST CAPE ALOFT.
THE LOW CENTER WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
ALLOWING A STRONG PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SURGE SOUTH
DURING THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP ABRUPTLY
DURING THE DAY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHALLOW LIFT IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT COULD SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS OR
A MIX AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 30S. IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL
HOWEVER GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF LIFT/PRECIP AND OVERNIGHT WARM
TEMPS AND WARM PAVEMENT TEMPS.
ANY PRECIP CHCS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR IN PLACE IT WILL FEEL LIKE WINTER AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS ARE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED AROUND
WEDS/THU HOWEVER THE COLDEST AIR SHOULD STAY EAST OF US NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA IS PRODUCING NORTHWEST
WINDS ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LIGHT ESE WINDS THIS
EVENING PERHAPS ALLOWING SOME MVFR VIS CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
AFTER 3Z WITH BEST CHANCES AT TOP. DO NOT EXPECT VIS CONDS AS
LOW AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING WITH MORE SUN AND MIXING TODAY
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
RECORD FORECAST
DEC 26 HIGH TOPEKA 67 (2008) 66
CONCORDIA 64 (1959, 2008) 67
DEC 27 HIGH TOPEKA 71 (1946) 69
CONCORDIA 63 (1928, 1976) 63
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...OMITT
AVIATION...OMITT
CLIMATE...GRIESEMER/POAGE
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