104
FXUS63 KTOP 270443
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1043 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD/NEAR RECORD WARMTH INTO SATURDAY
- TURNING SHARPLY COLDER WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS ON SUNDAY
- LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH CLOSER TO AVERAGE TEMPS
NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
THE FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE RECORD/NEAR RECORD WARMTH SHORT
TERM AND THEN ON THE ABRUPT CHANGE TO WINTER COMING ON SUNDAY.
A WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TROUGH PASSED THROUGH THIS
MORNING TAKING THE LOW CLOUDS WITH IT AND LEAVING A VERY WARM
AND SOMEWHAT DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SFC. HIGHS WILL REACH
NEAR RECORDS OR RECORDS TODAY WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND ONLY
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
THE WEAK HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH LIGHT WINDS GIVING WAY TO LIGHT ESE WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN CO. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE AS HIGH A RISK TONIGHT AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS
WITH BETTER MIXING/DRYING TODAY. THERE STILL COULD BE PATCHY FOG
IN LOW LYING AREAS/RIVER BOTTOMS BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG.
ON SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST
WITH ESE WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTH WITH AN EFFECTIVE WARM
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE CURRENT LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS MO COULD BUILD BACK SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AND THIS COULD PROVE CHALLENGING FOR THE MAX TEMP
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA WHERE THERE COULD
BE MORE CLOUD COVER TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY. WILL NOT MAKE
SIG CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR HIGHS WITH LOW/MID 60S NORTH
TO AROUND 70 SOUTH FOR TOMORROW.
BY SAT NIGHT 50KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP AND EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
ELEVATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN AT LEAST MODEST CAPE ALOFT.
THE LOW CENTER WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
ALLOWING A STRONG PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SURGE SOUTH
DURING THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP ABRUPTLY
DURING THE DAY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHALLOW LIFT IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT COULD SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS OR
A MIX AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 30S. IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL
HOWEVER GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF LIFT/PRECIP AND OVERNIGHT WARM
TEMPS AND WARM PAVEMENT TEMPS.
ANY PRECIP CHCS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR IN PLACE IT WILL FEEL LIKE WINTER AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS ARE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED AROUND
WEDS/THU HOWEVER THE COLDEST AIR SHOULD STAY EAST OF US NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
KTOP WILL PROBABLY BE SOCKED IN WITH 1/4SM FOG AND 200-300 FEET
OF VERTICAL VISIBILITY WITHIN THE DEEPER GROUND FOG THROUGH
ABOUT 13Z SAT, BEING IN THE KAW RIVER VALLEY. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG AT KFOE AND KMHK THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY. AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES AFTER 13Z SAT,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
RECORD FORECAST
DEC 27 HIGH TOPEKA 71 (1946) 69
CONCORDIA 63 (1928, 1976) 63
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...OMITT
AVIATION...GARGAN
CLIMATE...GRIESEMER/POAGE
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