847
FXUS63 KTOP 271111
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
511 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-RECORD WARMTH TODAY
- BECOMING WINDY SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
- RAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX AS COLDER
AIR BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING IMPACTS FROM ANY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL.
- MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESIDES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING AHEAD A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LIGHT TO CALM SURFACE
WINDS AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP, ALTHOUGH IT'S NOWHERE NEAR AS DENSE AND WIDESPREAD
AS IT HAS BEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. ELEVATED WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE ALONG WITH PASSING CIRRUS APPEAR TO BE KEEPING FOG MORE
TRANSIENT AND PATCHY IN NATURE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOG ACROSS
MISSOURI AS IT TRIES TO OOZE INTO FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS
MORNING.
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH APPROACHES THE PLAINS TODAY, A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. SURFACE WINDS
BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE, BUMPING TEMPERATURES TOWARDS
RECORD VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. IF FOG
AND LOW STRATUS OVER MISSOURI REACH INTO EASTER PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WARMING COULD BE SLOWED IN THIS AREA. EVEN THE
FEW SOLUTIONS THAT DO BRING THE LOW CLOUDS INTO EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA HAVE THEM LIFTING BY LATE THIS MORNING, SO DON'T
EXPECT THIS TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH PASSING MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND FRONTOGENESIS
LEADING TO AN AREA OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDING DEPICT DRY
LOW-LEVELS, BUT THINK PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS
DRY LAYER AND REACH THE SURFACE. 00Z HREF MEMBERS SHOW SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS THAT COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE
OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AND WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL RAPIDLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM MIDNIGHT TO SUNRISE.
AS THE COLDER AIR BUILDS IN, LIFT AND SATURATION INCREASE IN THE LOW-
LEVELS WHILE THE MID-LEVELS DRY OUT. DEPTH OF SATURATION SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION,
INITIALLY AS RAIN OR DRIZZLE BEFORE THE COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SLEET AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SNOW BEFORE DRIER AIR BUILDS
IN AND PRECIPITATION ENDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS TEMPERATURES
COOL, BUT WARM GROUND FROM THE RECENT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PREVENT ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION FROM BEING MUCH OF AN
ISSUE.
IT WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE WINTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE TEENS MONDAY MORNING WITH A BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND CREATING WIND CHILL VALUES OF +5 TO -5. CONTINUED CAA
THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIMIT WARMING AND HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
20S TO LOW 30S MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SOME SHALLOW FOG AT KTOP THIS
MORNING. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD, BECOMING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS MORNING. SHOWERS APPROACH TERMINALS
AROUND 06Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INPUT MORE
THAN VCSH AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
UPDATED AT 250 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
RECORD FORECAST
DEC 27 HIGH TOPEKA 71 (1946) 68
CONCORDIA 63 (1928, 1976) 64
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
CLIMATE...GRIESEMER/POAGE
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