368
FXUS63 KTOP 020451
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1051 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AIR IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW THEN A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
- COULD SEE ANOTHER FOGGY MORNING FRIDAY WITH EARLY MORNING
CLOUDS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING.
- VARIABILITY AND SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS REMAIN HIGH FOR POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY/FRIDAY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
AN AMPLIFIED SLOWLY EVOLVING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CONUS WITH A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW SPINNING OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION
WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND REGION INTO THE
ATLANTIC. NORTHWEST FLOW IS THE PRIMARY FEATURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A BROAD AMPLIFIED RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN STATES. A SOUTHERN PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS DE-AMPLIFYING AS IT TRANSLATES EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WITH SOME SPILLOVER OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, THE PREVIOUS SHALLOW AND WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA HAS STALLED GENERALLY OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOW TO MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON. REMAINING
LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO ERODE TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
BUT MOST WILL SEE SUNSHINE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON.
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, THE STRATUS IS PROGGED TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR AS
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. THIS COULD HELP REINFORCE LOW LEVEL SATURATION INTO TOMORROW
MORNING WITH WITH FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS ONCE AGAIN. UNSURE HOW
DENSE THE FOG MAY BECOME BUT IF DENSE FOG DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN, THEN
THINKING FAVORED AREAS ARE FROM NORTH-CENTRAL INTO EAST-CENTRAL
KANSAS. MOST IMPACTS ARE TRAVEL RELATED AND AVIATION RELATED BUT
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN IMPROVE BY MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WEAK AND SHALLOW
FRONTOGENESIS MAY ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND COULD SLIP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
KANSAS BUT RIGHT NOW OVERALL LIFT IN THE LOWEST LAYERS APPEARS WEAK
AND OVERALL SATURATION DEPTH APPEARS LIMITED TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION ENTERING NORTHEAST KANSAS. PROBABILITY IS TOO
LOW TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME AS THE FOCUS
AREA COULD EVEN MOVE INTO IOWA AND WEAKEN AS THE OVERALL NORTHWEST
FLOW SHIFTS EAST WITH THE FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN
RIDGE.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A WARMUP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WHICH IS TRENDING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST FULL
WEEK OF JANUARY. EXPECT A REPEAT OF CHRISTMAS WEEK TEMPERATURES.
CURRENTLY, SPREADS LOOK FAIRLY NARROW IN THE NBM DATA SETS WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A HIGHER LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE POINTING TOWARD HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND EVEN HIGHER INTO THE 60S ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WHILE LOWS SETTLE IN THE 30S MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SLIGHTLY SLOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
AND LOW STRATUS, BUT WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF TOPEKA. SO WE SHOULD STILL
SEE LOWER CEILINGS APPROACH THE MAIN TAF SITES IN THE NEXT 1-4
HOURS, ALONG WITH A FEW HOURS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES. GIVEN LITTLE
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED SO FAR, THE EXTENT OF ANY VISIBILITIES BELOW
1/2 MILE TONIGHT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT
SOME SCATTERING OUT OF STRATUS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THOUGH GIVEN
CONTINUED LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDS
STICK AROUND.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...REESE
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