156
FXUS63 KTOP 021144
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
544 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AIR IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW THEN A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
- PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH DAY BREAK,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS.
- THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES. ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WAS NOTED ACROSS
THE PLAINS. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC, OFF THE US COAST. A SHORTER WAVE LENGTH UPPER TROUGH
WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MN,
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO NORTHERN TX. LOW STRATUS HAS
DEVELOPED UNDER S HIGH CLOUD OVERCAST. THERE SOME CONCERN THAT
THE LOWER STRATUS 200-300 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MAY BEGIN
TO BUILD DOWN AND FORM AREAS OF DENSE FOG. I THINK THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR DENSE FOG MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS. BUT THE
HIGH CLOUD OVERCAST MAY PREVENT MUCH DENSE FOG FROM FORMING.
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT:
IF ANY FOG DEVELOPS IT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STRATUS MAY LAST
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN IF IT DOES SCATTER OUT
THERE WILL A MID AND HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS MAY ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40S DEGREES. IT MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IF THERE
IS A BIT MORE INSOLATION. THE WESTERN COUNTIES MAY BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH LOWER 40S EXPECTED.
THIS EVENING THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THIS TIME THE MORE INTENSE DCVA AHEAD OF THE H5
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ACROSS NE, WITH SOME 850MB FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING TO PRODUCE AN ACCUMULATING WINTRY MIX. THE SOUTHER EDGE
OF THIS WINTERY MIX MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER, MOST CAMS DO NOT HAVE PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS. THE HRRR
AND WRF SOLUTIONS KEEP THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE NE BORDER BUT DO
SHOW BROWN COUNTY GETTING CLIPPED BY A WINTRY MIX DURING THE
LAST EVENING HOURS. THE RAP AND 12KM NAM SHOW A BROADER AREA OF
A WINTRY MIX EXTEND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. HOWEVER ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. I KEPT 15 TO 20 POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF
-FZDZ/IP/SNOW. THE NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
MODEL FORECASTS IN CASE THE STRONGER FORCING DOES EXPAND
FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH. ANY LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WILL SHIFT EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND SHIFT
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC H5 TROUGH MOVES CLOSER
TO THE WESTERN US COAST BY SUNDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO SHIFT
TO THE EAST. STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CAUSE A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S ON SUNDAY,
WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL SHEAR APART AS SPLIT FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MOST OF THE CONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 TROUGH
WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US AND DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS TX BY
THURSDAY. ATTM MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT AS MOST
OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST US.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
STRATUS WITH VLIFR TO LIFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING
TO 1 TO 3 MILES THROUGH 15Z. THE LOW STRATUS CEILINGS WILL RISE
TO MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 18Z. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE
STRATUS BETWEEEN 22Z FRI-02Z SAT, BUT THE STRATUS WILL REFORM
DURING THE NIGHT WITH CEILINGS BELOW 3000 FEET.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...GARGAN
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