203
FXUS63 KTOP 030438
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1038 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDY AND COLD THIS EVENING WITH A 10-20% CHANCE FOR A LIGHT WINTRY
MIX TO BRIEFLY TRACK ACROSS SOME NORTHERN COUNTIES.
- A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK STILL HAVE A HIGH DEGREE
OF VARIABILITY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
SUBTLE CHANGES HAVE TAKEN PLACE OVER THE PAST 24HRS WHICH HAVE
RESULTED IN A SLIGHT DEVIATION FROM PRIOR FORECASTS FOR THE SHORT-
TERM. AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH HAS LIFTED INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME REGION AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST HAS DEEPENED,
THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS HAS BECOME
SLIGHTLY MORE QUASI-ZONAL AND THUS HAS ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE
AMPLIFIED EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO EJECT FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES VICINITY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LOW END POPS MAINLY ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER THIS
EVENING MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA
COMPLETELY BEFORE SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.
IMPLICATIONS FOR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE MORE PERSISTENT STRATUS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR OVERALL LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
SET UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. THE SECOND ASPECT IS THAT OF
A 10-20% CHANCE FOR BRIEF WINTRY MIX TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING AGAIN MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN EXITING
EAST. LOW LEVEL SATURATION IN FORECAST PROFILES FOR HRRR, RAP AND
OTHER HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT A DRY WEDGE REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE
LOWEST 5-8KFT. THE LOW END CHANCE FOR EITHER DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS
LIGHT RAIN MAY COME INTO PLAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
COOL INTO THIS EVENING AND ALLOWS FOR A THICKER CLOUD DECK ALONG
WITH WEAK ASCENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS SETUP COULD ALLOW FOR
FOR JUST ENOUGH HYDROMETEORS TO FALL OUT OF THE CLOUDS FOR A FEW
HOUR WINDOW THIS EVENING. NOT ANTICIPATING ON WIDESPREAD CONCERNS TO
DEVELOP OR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS SO HAVE NOT GONE WITH
ADVISORY MENTION AT THIS TIME. LOOK FOR MAINLY MIST TO BE IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
INTO SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY, THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST FILLS AND LIFTS INTO WESTERN CANADA WITH THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN-WEST BROADENING AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD HELP HEIGHTS TO RISE ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR A VERY NICE TEMPERATURE
RISE TO COMMENCE WITH THE TREND FOLLOWING SUIT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
EVEN THOUGH THE SOLAR ANGLE IS LOW, SUFFICIENT WARMING WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH A COMBINATION OF LEE TROUGHING MAINLY SUNDAY BRINGING A
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST WIND COMPONENT USHERING IN WAA THEN FURTHER
WARMING SHOULD BE AIDED WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK
WITH THE RESULTANT COMPRESSIONAL WARMING HELPING TO PUSH HIGHS INTO
THE 60S.
STILL WATCHING HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES AS THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BUT
HINTS STILL POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR AN EARLY SPRING TYPE WEATHER
SYSTEM TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST REMAINING WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL
RAIN WITH COLD AIR DISPLACED WELL NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
PASSING SYSTEM AND OBSERVED RADAR RETURNS INDICATES FROZEN
PRECIP FALLING AROUND 11 KFT, MOST OF WHICH IS EVAPORATING
BEFORE REACHING THE SFC DUE TO EXPANSIVE DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD
BASE. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH CURRENT OBS,
UNDERESTIMATING THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS/LESSER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SEEN, THEREFORE LIMITING MVFR CIGS FROM DEVELOPING FURTHER
SOUTH. HAVE THEREFORE BACKED OFF ON PREVAILING IFR AT KTOP/KFOE
WHILE MAINTAINING IFR/MVFR STRATUS AT KMHK OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AT TERMINALS IN THE 15Z-18Z TIMEFRAME.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...PRIETO
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