969
FXUS63 KTOP 030839
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
239 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON.
- A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MUCH
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK STILL HAVE A HIGH DEGREE
OF VARIABILITY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH AILS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN KS. AN AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED
AROUND THE EMPORIA AREA AND WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH 4 AM
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE CWA. QPF WILL BE LIGHT BUT
THERE MAY BE SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS BETWEEN EMPORIA AND
GARNETT.
ELSE WHERE ACROSS THE CONUS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS AMPLIFYING
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL US. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC, OFF THE WESTERN US COAST. A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS SHIFTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.
THE 7Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
MN, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO CENTRAL TX. ONCE
AGAIN AN AREA OF MIXED PRECIP WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF EMPORIA
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE CWA.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW FREEZING, SO SLICK SPOTS
WILL DEVELOP ON AREA ROADWAYS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF
THE CWA THROUGH 5 AM.
TODAY:
THE H5 TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN IA, EASTERN KS,
CENTRAL OK AND NORTH TX WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST WILL KEEP NEAR SEASONAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KS
WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER 40S, WITH MID 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WITH CLOUDS DECREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL US WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE H5 RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC H5 TROUGH SHEARS APART WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SECTION DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO BY 00Z THU. THE
ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S ON SUNDAY, A DEEPENING
LEE TROUGH WILL CAUSE STRONGER WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID
60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
THE EXTENDED RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE A FAIR AGREEMENT. ALL SHOW
ANOTHER H5 TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS NORTHERN CA/OR AND
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF AND
GFS SHOW SPLIT FLOW WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM H5 TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO BEING KICKED NORTHEAST ACROSS TX INTO AR. THIS
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE ASCENT SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA ACROSS
OK/TX/AR. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MAY PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA FRIDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH BUT KEEPS THE STRONGER
ASCENT ACROSS NE INTO IA AND SOUTHERN MN. THE ECMWF WOULD
SUGGEST A POSSIBLE WINTER STORM DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NE
INTO IA AND SOUTHERN MN FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS A SERIES OF
FRONTS PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL COOL
INTO THE 50S, BUT IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MAY STILL REACH THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. FRIDAY
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE EVEN COOLER WITH MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER
40S SOUTH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
PASSING SYSTEM AND OBSERVED RADAR RETURNS INDICATES FROZEN
PRECIP FALLING AROUND 11 KFT, MOST OF WHICH IS EVAPORATING
BEFORE REACHING THE SFC DUE TO EXPANSIVE DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD
BASE. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH CURRENT OBS,
UNDERESTIMATING THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS/LESSER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SEEN, THEREFORE LIMITING MVFR CIGS FROM DEVELOPING FURTHER
SOUTH. HAVE THEREFORE BACKED OFF ON PREVAILING IFR AT KTOP/KFOE
WHILE MAINTAINING IFR/MVFR STRATUS AT KMHK OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AT TERMINALS IN THE 15Z-18Z TIMEFRAME.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...PRIETO
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