643
FXUS63 KTOP 032309
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
509 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS) ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY/FRIDAY, MODEL SPREAD YIELDS A
HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WAS CUTTING THROUGH
THE CWA, WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE EAST, CONTRASTED TO WSW
WINDS BEHIND THE SFC FEATURE. TWO PERSISTENT AREAS OF MVFR STRATUS,
ONE CENTERED SOUTH OF CNK AND ANOTHER FROM TOP TO EMP, HAVE
FINALLY MIXED OUT WITH NOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. IN AREAS WEST OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS THAT HAD MAXIMUM
INSOLATION, TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S
VERSUS THE MID 30S IN THE MORNING CLOUD AREAS. DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD STRATUS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT; INSTEAD LOOK FOR A
DENSE CANOPY OF UPSTREAM CIRRUS TO GRADUALLY SPILL INTO THE
AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH MINS ONLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S (5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LOW TEMPS).
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MID-
WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, A LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT WAA
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL SPELL A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S (SOME 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). WITH
DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD,
EXCEPTIONAL OUTDOOR WEATHER FOR JANUARY CAN BE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SONORA DESERT
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH A LARGER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, EJECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THESE FEATURES WILL PLAY A NOTABLE ROLE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH MODEL SPREAD
CURRENTLY PROVIDING LOW-PREDEICTABILITY FOR DETAIL THIS FAR OUT. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THIS WILL BE THE BEST WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOLING FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 505 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
VFR AT KFOE/KMHK AS AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ADDED MENTION
OF SHALLOW VALLEY FOG AT KTOP AFT 09Z, QUICKLY MIXING OUT AS
SOUTH WINDS AREA WIDE INCREASE FROM 10 TO 15 KTS SUSTAINED AFT
15Z. GUSTS OVER 20 KTS ARE MOST PROMINENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BLAIR
AVIATION...PRIETO
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