919
FXUS63 KTOP 040840
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
240 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS) ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY/FRIDAY, MODEL SPREAD YIELDS A
HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY.
- TURNING COOLER NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS. A
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND FL. A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WAS LOCATED
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WAS BEGINNING TO SHEAR APART
WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CA
COAST.
THE 7Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE NORTHERN WI, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS MO INTO NORTHEAST TX.
WINDS ACROSS THE CWA HAVE BEEN BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN RISING A FEW DEGREES SINCE LATE EVENING LOW TEMPERATURES.
LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH SUNRISE.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
BUT STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL CAUSE A LEE SURFACE TROUGH TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS THE H5 TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE
ACROSS THE WESTERN US.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM H5 TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CA
COAST INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO BY 00Z THU. THE NORTHERN STREAM
SECTION OF THE H5 TROUGH WILL FILL AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SECONDARY H5 TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
EXPECT A BIG WARMING TREND AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING
WAA EARLY NEXT WEEK HELP TO WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID
WEEK. TODAY'S HIGHS WILL THE LOWER 50S EAST TO UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST COUNTIES.
MONDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S
SOUTHEAST. THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STRONGER WAA ON WEDNESDAY WILL HELP HIGH
TEMPERATRES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S NORTH WITH MID 60S
SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM H5 TROUGH
OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO GETS KICKED NORTHEAST ACROSS TX INTO OK AND AR
AS IT FILLS. THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK SOLUTION BY THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS MAY BRING RAIN SHOWERS NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM H5 TROUGH AND KEEPS THE RAIN SOUTHEAST OF
THE CWA. IT WILL BE MORE INTERESTING AS THE FOUR CORNERS H5
TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
SHOW ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION AT 850MB/SURFACE FOR THE RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE GFS IS LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH THE FOUR CORNERS H5 TROUGH AND HAS BOTH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM H5 TROUGHS PHASING TOGETHER
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA ACROSS AR AND SOUTHERN MO. THE GFS HAS
LITTLE TO NO QPF.
AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CWA, DUE THE
CHANGING EXTENDED RANGE MODEL FORECASTS EVERY RUN CYCLE. THE
LREF (LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST) SHOWS A 33 PERCENT CHANCE OF
1 INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF
REPUBLIC COUNTY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THEN NORTHWARD
ACROSS NE. TOPEKA HAS ONLY A ONLY A 13 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF
SEEING ONE INCH OR MORE OF SNOW. AREAS SOUTHEAST OF I-35 HAVE
LESS THAN A 5 PERCENT OF SEEING AN INCH OF SNOWFALL.
ALL THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOW THE PHASED H5 TROUGH DEEPENING
ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THE STRONG CAA ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL BRING A COLDER AIR MASS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS, SO IT
MAY BE TURNING COLDER WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL HIGHS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. BUT WE WILL SEE HOW MUCH COLD AIR OVER CENTRAL CANADA THAT
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CAN TAP INTO.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 958 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
VFR AT TERMINALS THIS PERIOD AS MAIN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH
WINDS INCREASING FROM 15 TO 20 KTS SUSTAINED AFT 15Z THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE, GIVING SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN PREVAILING FOG DEVELOPING AT KTOP AFT 09Z. ADDED MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND SHALLOW FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP GIVEN THE SHALLOW
MOIST LAYER OBSERVED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...PRIETO
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