711
FXUS63 KTOP 042304
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
504 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS) ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY/FRIDAY, MODEL SPREAD
YIELDS A HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY.
- TURNING COOLER NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
DENSE CIRRUS CANOPY HAS FINALLY PUSHED EAST OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH NOTABLE WARMING IN ITS WAKE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S - SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
RELAX AS SUNSET APPROACHES, AND EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT, MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK, PROVIDING
AN EXPANSIVE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CONUS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S (SOME 10 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). WITH DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, EXCEPTIONAL OUTDOOR WEATHER FOR JANUARY CAN BE
ANTICIPATED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE PRIMARY APPRECIABLE WEATHER FOCUS CONTINUES FOR THE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
OPEN OVER THE SONORA DESERT AND RAPIDLY EJECT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, PHASING WITH A LARGER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. THE EVOLUTION, STRENGTH, AND TRACK OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES
WILL PLAY A NOTABLE ROLE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS
WINDOW. ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS LARGE, AND LIKEWISE OFFICIAL
FORECAST MEAN MAY BE ON THE LOWER END OF EXPECTED QPF - SOME AREAS
MAY RECEIVE IN EXCESS OF A QUARTER-INCH OF PRECIPITATION, BUT
PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. FURTHERMORE, IF THE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS, WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WITH A COLD ENOUGH
COLUMN MAY ALLOW FOR WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. BOTTOM LINE, THIS IS THE BEST WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY IN KEY FEATURES
REMAIN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 504 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
THE CURRENT GUSTIER SOUTH WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME OVERNIGHT, TO
AROUND 5 KTS AT KTOP AND KMHK IN THE RIVER VALLEY, AND AROUND 10 KTS
AT FOE IN THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN. COULD SEE SOME FOG MOVE IN
TOWARDS SUNRISE AS SURFACE MOISTURE INCREASES, THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE SOUTH OF KTOP/KFOE. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH CONTINUED 5-10
KT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BLAIR
AVIATION...REESE
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