371
FXUS63 KTOP 051637
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1037 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS) ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY/FRIDAY, MODEL SPREAD
YIELDS A HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY.
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
- TURNING COOLER NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH 00Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE
WESTERN US. AN UPPER TROUGH WAS EXITING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE 7Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A LEE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN
NE, SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER, SOUTH INTO WEST TX. WINDS WERE
SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE CWA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN
OK/SOUTHEAST KS WAS ADVECTING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE CWA. THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO SOME ADVECTION FOG AND STRATUS AROUND
SUNRISE THAT MAY LAST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WEAK PERTURBATION
EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL PROVIDE FOR LOW-LEVEL WAA. ONCE THE LOW
STRATUS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES MIXES OUT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.
AS THE WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATION SHIFTS EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON TUESDAY MORNING WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS KS INTO THE MID
MS RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NORTH WITH LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH AS DOWNSLOPE WARMING ACROSS
WESTERN KS IS ADVECTED EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THE WESTERN US H5 TROUGH WILL SHEAR
APART WITH THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN STREAM H5 TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO. THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL FILL
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, OFF THE WESTERN CANADIAN COAST
WILL DIG SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
CAUSE A LEE SIDE LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PROVIDE LOW-LEVEL WAA
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT MOVING THE H5
TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THEN DIGGING THE H5 TROUGH
SOUTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 00Z FRI. AS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST H5 TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, IT
WILL ACT AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM H5 TROUGH
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THE SOUTHERN STREAM H5 TROUGH WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS OK INTO MO. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ASCENT AHEAD
OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM H5 TROUGH, ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR
LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS EARLY THURSDAY,
WITH THE LIGHT RAIN EXPENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
KS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA MAY ALSO PROVIDE SOME EXTRA ASCENT FOR
LIGHT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD END THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM H5 TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS MO. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL
COOL DOWN INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES, HIGHS MAY REACH THE LOWER 60S BUT MAY FALL BACK INTO
THE 50S DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE SECOND H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT EAST-
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL CAA MAY KEEP HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. THE EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE TRACK OF THE H5 TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK AND SHOWS A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
KS AND AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
KS. THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THE RAIN AND SNOW MIX MAY CHANGE
OVER TO ALL SNOW AND EXTEND THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND A DEEPENING SURFACE AND 850 MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST
KS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO IA.
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY BE DRY SLOTTED
ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE 850MB LOW. BUT NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KS MAY SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW FALL. HOWEVER THE GFS
MODEL HAS A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK AND KEEP THE ACCUMULATING SNOW
NORTH OF THE NE BORDER.
THE LREF PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL HAS
INCREASED TO 33 PERCENT FOR ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL KS, AND 25 PERCENT
FOR CENTRAL KS NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST KS. PROBABILITIES FOR 1 INCH OR
GREATER OF SNOWFALL DROPS OFF TO UNDER 5 PERCENT SOUTHEAST OF I-35. WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
A SECOND SURGE OF A COLDER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AS THE H5 TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER, MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT SHOW
ANY ARCTIC AIR TRAPPED IN NORTHERN CANADA REACHING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
AS THE H5 TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN COAST OF THE US, THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND THE
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MODERATE HIGH BACK
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS TAKING IT'S TIME
MIXING OUT. HAVE UPDATED TO KEEP SOME RESTRICTED CIGS IN
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BASED ON THE RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THINK
THE NAM IS HOLDING ON TO THE LOW LEVEL SATURATION TO LONG. A
WEAK WAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING CAUSING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
BECOME WESTERLY. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE SOME DRY AIR ADVECTION AT
THE SURFACE AND KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...WOLTERS
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