451
FXUS63 KTOP 060918
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
318 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR RAIN ON THURSDAY (40-85%) ARE TRENDING HIGH FOR
PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. RAIN AMOUNTS COULD
RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH WEST TO NEAR AN INCH
SOUTHEAST.
- THERE IS 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL,
NORTHEAST, AND PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
- TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER AND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN IA, SOUTHWARD ACROSS MO. AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL CA
COAST. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE GULF,
EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
THE 1 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWED AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST IA, WITH A PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS FAR
EASTERN KS. BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH, WINDS HAVE SWITCHED MORE
TO WEST. MOST OF THE DENSE FOG ACROSS NORTHEAST KS HAS
DISPERSED BUT PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY CONTINUE WITHIN THE RIVER
VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL.
IF THE VISIBILITY TRENDS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE, I WILL LET THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST KS EXPIRE.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE H5 TROUGH OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY 00Z THU. AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM H5 TROUGH AN H5 RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY.
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND INSOLATION WILL HELP HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN A LEE
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CO AND EASTERN NM. STRONGER SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW-LEVEL WAA ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.
AN AMPLIFIED H5 TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
THERE'S GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING THE
H5 TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, THE GREAT BASIN H5 TROUGH WILL
ACT AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER, TO KICK THE NORTHERN MEXICO SOUTHERN
STREAM H5 TROUGH NORTHEAST ACROSS TX INTO OK/EASTERN KS/MO. THE
COMBINATIONS OF DCVA AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS, AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS, WILL PROVIDE ASCENT FOR A WIDESPREAD LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST QPF WILL
BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-35 WHERE 0.6 TO 0.9" OF RAINFALL
MAY OCCUR. THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST KS WILL SEE UP TO 0.5" OF RAINFALL. NORTH CENTRAL KS
WILL SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH ONLY 0.15" TO 0.25" OF
RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA ON THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL STILL REACH AROUND 50 DEGREES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH OF
I-70.
THE RAIN SHOULD END THURSDAY EVENING AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM H5
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE H5
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION/WESTERN NM BY 6Z FRIDAY.
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE TRACK HAS BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
MODEL CYCLES. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FARTHER SOUTH, AND NOW SHOW THE GREATEST QPF FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING SHIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
KS, THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE CANADIAN MODEL
SOLUTION IS EVEN FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE GREATEST QPF SOUTH OF
I-70.
SINCE THERE IS NOT MUCH LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR THE PRECIP WILL PROBABLY
START OUT AS RAIN FRIDAY EVENING BUT WILL MIX WITH SNOW THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WET-BULB COOLING DEVELOPS AND AND MAY TURN TO ALL SNOW
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY, WHEN TEMPERATURES MAY
BEGIN TO FALL BELOW FREEZING INTO THE UPPER 20S TOWARDS 12Z SAT.
THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF SHOWS 2 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KS. ONLY A TRACE OF SNOWFALL SOUTHEAST
OF I-35. GIVEN THE WARM ROAD TEMPERATURES THE ONLY WAY THE FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR ON ROADWAYS SURFACE WOULD BE IF THE
RATE OF SNOWFALL APPROACHES .5" PER HOUR. THIS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IF 850MB TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY.
THE LREF PROBABILITY FOR 1" OR MORE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS FROM SLN TO
TOP AND AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST WILL HAVE A 30 TO 40 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF 1 INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. NORTH
CENTRAL KS WILL BE AROUND A 40 PERCENT CHANCE. AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I-35 WILL ONLY SEE A 5 TO 15 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF
1 INCH OR MORE OF SNOW.
THE SNOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY THE MID MORNING HOURS
OF SATURDAY AS THE H5 TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY AND PHASES WITH AN H5 TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL CAA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH COLD AIR TO TAP INTO, SO HIGHS
WILL WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S, WITH
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. ANOTHER H5 TROUGH WILL
MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, THEN RETROGRADE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL US. NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
VFR AT TERMINALS WITH LIFR FOG SPREADING AS FAR SOUTH AS KTOP.
SOUTHERN EDGE OF FOG DECK SHOULD HOVER OVER KTOP THROUGH AT
LEAST 10Z. DRIER, WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD SHIFT THE FOG DECK
EASTWARD THEREAFTER. LIGHT WEST WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AFT
16Z. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN THE
DAYTIME PERIOD.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...PRIETO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page