694
FXUS63 KTOP 062338
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
538 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN (70-90% CHANCE) IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. RAIN
AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH.
- THE CHANCE FOR SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE
INCREASED TO BETWEEN 40-50%. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE
MODELS SO AMOUNTS AND LOCATION MAY CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS.
- AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM COUNCIL GROVE TO HOLTON HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE (40-60%) OF SEEING TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN CA WITH A SOMEWHAT ZONAL PATTERN DOWNSTREAM OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS. SURFACE OBS PLACED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TX AND OK
PANHANDLES FAVORING A WESTERLY WIND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH ONLY SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THESE HIGH CLOUDS MAY TEMPER AFTERNOON TEMPS WEDNESDAY, BUT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP HIGHS WARM INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.
THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST IS PROGGED TO LIFT THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY WITH REALLY FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. WITH A GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS, POPS FROM THE NBM INCREASED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CORRECT TREND AND HAVE NOT CHANGED THE 70 TO 90
PERCENT POPS FROM THE NBM. STRONG QG CONVERGENCE AND SUSTAINED
VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD BRING BENEFICIAL RAIN
AMOUNTS IN THE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE. HIGHS THURSDAY COULD BE A
LITTLE TRICKY WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN TENDING TO KEEP THINGS
MORE ON THE COOL SIDE. HAVE STUCK WITH THE NBM'S LOWER 60S ACROSS
ANDERSON AND COFFEY COUNTIES THINKING THERE COULD BE A GOOD ENOUGH
ADVECTION COMPONENT EARLY IN THE DAY TO WARM TEMPS EVEN WITH THE
RAIN AND LIMITED INSOLATION.
AFTER A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WITHIN A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS IT DOES A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. MORE OF THE 00Z ENSEMBLES FROM THE ECMWF, GFS AND
CANADIAN ARE SHOWING A SIGNAL FOR A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF SNOW LATE
IN THE DAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT THERE STILL IS SOME SPREAD
AMONG THE ENSEMBLES WITH ABOUT HALF OF THE 00Z MEMBERS SHOWING
LITTLE OR NO PRECIP. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW THE WAVE EVOLVES AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE 12Z GFS TENDS TO KEEP A PHASED TROUGH
WITH SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TOGETHER WHILE THE
12Z ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A SPLIT PATTERN. NEVERTHELESS BOTH SOLUTIONS
DEVELOP THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF SNOW BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE
FORECAST HAS AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS AND INTO
FAR NORTHEASTERN KS. BUT THE 00Z ENSEMBLES HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS. THE NINETIETH PERCENTILE OF THE 00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST 3 TO 5 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE. AM NOT SURE THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS SUPPORTIVE OF THESE KIND OF SNOW AMOUNTS AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE TEMPS REMAINING AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. AND SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS REFLECT THIS
WITH VALUES BETWEEN 8:1 AND 10:1 WHEN THE SNOW IS MOST LIKELY TO
FALL. SO A WET SNOW SEEMS TO BE MORE LIKELY AND THIS SEEMS TO
SUPPORT AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OR SO. IF COLDER AIR IS ABLE TO MOVE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT IT COULD BOOST SNOW TOTALS. IN ANY CASE, THE
EVENT IS LOOKING LIKE AN ADVISORY TYPE EVENT WITH SOME IMPACT TO
TRAVEL. AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM COUNCIL GROVE TO HOLTON APPEAR TO
HAVE THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE SNOW.
MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW THE TROUGH CLOSING OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND HINT AT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY WITHIN THE WARP AROUND OF THE CLOSED LOW. THIS IS THE
FIRST MODELS HAVE SHOWN THIS POTENTIAL SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY
HIGH. THE NBM HAS POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT ON SATURDAY AND HAVE OPTED
TO STICK WITH THIS FOR NOW. NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL MOISTURE RETURN AND PRECIP CHANCES. PREDICTABILITY IS
ALSO ON THE LOWER END WITH SOME RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE
SHORTWAVE PROGS. SO THE FORECAST INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK IS FOR
DRY WEATHER AS TEMPS MODERATE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT TERMINALS AS LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
BACK TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT, INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KTS AFT 16Z.
SHORT TERM SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DRIER AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS, GIVING NO INDICATION OF FOG DEVELOPING THIS EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR VISIBILITY TRENDS AS A SUDDEN DROP IN
TEMPS AT KTOP COULD ALLOW FOR SHALLOW FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 150 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
JANUARY 7TH
RECORD HIGH FORECAST HIGH
TOPEKA 68 (1965) 64
CONCORDIA 63 (2006) 62
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...PRIETO
CLIMATE...WOLTERS
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