048
FXUS63 KTOP 072348
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
548 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM
A HALF INCH TO AROUND 1 INCH.
- THERE REMAINS A 40-50% CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY EVENING. AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AN INCH OR LESS WITH MINOR INCONVENIENCES FOR
TRAVELERS EXPECTED.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE JUST SOUTH OF CA AND AZ
WITH ANOTHER WAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A ZONAL PATTERN
REMAINED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGH AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS FAVORED SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HAS HELPED PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND 70
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW. THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING GOOD FORCING FOR VERTICAL MOTION AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST Q-VECTOR AND PV ANOMALY
SET TO IMPACT THE AREA DIRECTLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME
MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS, SO AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD OCCUR. THE CHANCES FOR AN
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS OR LINE SEGMENT IS NON-ZERO GIVEN THE
PROGGED 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 60KT. SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT
STRONG CONVECTION IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED HIGHER WITH RAIN TOTALS AND GIVING THE FORCING AND CHANCE
FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP, THINK AMOUNTS IN THE 0.5 TO AROUND 1 INCH
RANGE ARE REASONABLE. THE NATIONAL WATER MODEL DOESN'T SEEM TO BE TO
CONCERNED WITH THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED BASIN OR
TWO SHOWING ELEVATED STREAM FLOWS. WITH ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE OVER 1.5 INCHES, FLOODING CONCERNS APPEAR TO BE MUTED AT
THIS TIME.
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS.
MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING BETWEEN A PHASED SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY OR NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY BECOMING DOMINANT. IN SPITE
OF THIS, MOST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A SIGNAL FOR A FRONTOGENETICAL
BAND OF SNOW FRIDAY EVENING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
THE 15Z SREF PLUMS HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN SPITE OF THE 12Z
NAM GENERALLY DRY FORECAST. LOCATION OF THE BANDED PRECIP SEEMS TO
BE MORE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EVOLVES. BUT IN
GENERAL MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS POINTING TOWARDS A LIGHT SNOW EVENT.
A LITTLE MORE THAN HALF OF THE 00Z ENSEMBLES FROM THE GFS, ECMWF AND
CANADIAN STILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION AND THE THERMAL
PROFILE OF THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT TERRIBLY COLD. THIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS SOME WHERE IN THE 8:1 TO
10:1 RANGE. SO IF THE BAND DEVELOPS SNOW TOTALS MAY BE LIMITED WITH
AN INCH OR TWO BEING THE HIGH END. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THINKING THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW
AND DIDN'T WANT TO SHOW POPS DECREASING AS THE NBM HAD. WILL
CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THE SNOW AS A HEADS UP, BUT AT WORST WE ARE
LOOKING AT A SHORT DURATION ADVISORY WITH SOME IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.
THE INITIAL WAVE FRIDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO GET WRAPPED UP INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT NORTHWEST FLOW WITH DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP COULD FAVOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SHOWN
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF THE PAST COUPLE RUNS. WITH 90 PERCENT OF THE 00Z
ENSEMBLES WITH NO PRECIP, AM HESITANT TO ADD A POP SO WILL JUST
INCLUDE A MENTION OF FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN AS OCCASIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH THE
PLAINS. SO THE FORECAST IS FOR DRY WEATHER. AFTER COOL MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME MODERATION WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF HINT AT
A LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TOWARDS THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR MORE CANADIAN
HIGHS TO MOVE SOUTH AND TEMPS MORE TYPICAL OF JANUARY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN JUST
AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. HEAVIER SHOWERS SHOULD HELP TO
DROP CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR, POSSIBLY HIGH IFR STATUS INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT MAY BE SEEN BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING
AND CIGS IMPROVING TO MVFR STATUS AS WINDS SHIFT AND PREVAIL OUT
OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
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