837
FXUS63 KTOP 271714
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1114 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES GO UP AND DOWN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WARMING TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY, TURNING COLDER AGAIN LATE WEEK, THEN WARMER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
WELL AS SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY
ACCUMULATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, WHILE A SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS TRAVERSING OUT OF WY EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE
SITS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NOTED IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS
THE AREA OUT OF THE SFC LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY
HAS HELPED TO RELAX WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL BRING A WEAK
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER. COOLER AIR NORTHEAST MAY KEEP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN FAR NORTHEAST KS, BUT OTHERWISE
THIS BOUNDARY DOES LITTLE TO AFFECT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER TODAY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND AND KEEPS WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO HELP US REACH THE MID 20S
NORTHEAST AND UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ELSEWHERE. WE COULD SEE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT BEFORE THEY QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
FOR MOST WEDNESDAY MORNING. A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS SHOULD
HELP BOOST EVERYONE ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
IS PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, BRINGING A MORE IMPACTFUL COLD FRONT. HIGHS DROP BACK TO THE
20S THURSDAY, THEN TEENS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING HAVE TRENDED COLDER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
CONFIDENCE IN REACHING CRITERIA FOR HEADLINES STILL ISN'T VERY HIGH,
BUT PROTECTION FROM THE COLD WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THOSE OUTDOORS
SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR SNOW CHANCES, MODELS ARE STILL GENERATING
LIGHT QPF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
WAVE POTENTIALLY DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. HOWEVER, DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND PLACEMENT FOR EACH WAVE AND MOISTURE QUALITY FOR THE
SECOND WAVE LEAD TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS. ENSEMBLE DATA SHOW
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW AT LESS THAN 50% FOR EACH TIME
PERIOD, AND POPS REMAIN AT 30% OR LESS, FURTHER INDICATING THE LOWER
PREDICTABILITY. DESPITE THE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN MODELS, THERE
SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL FOR A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING 40 DEGREES BY NEXT
MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTS
OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10 MPH
BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT THEN FLIPPING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST BY
THE END OF THE TAF. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY SHALLOW FOG AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN
FORMATION AT THIS TIME, SO KEPT OUT MENTION.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
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