215
FXUS63 KTOP 281709
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1109 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY IS THE WARMEST DAY LEFT THIS WEEK BEFORE COLDER AIR RETURNS.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS WELL AS SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY
ACCUMULATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 441 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAK AREA OF LEE TROUGHING NOTED IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE
PERTURBATION ALOFT. A MORE NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NW AND WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THERE DOESN'T LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA TODAY, KEEPING WINDS LIGHT, ALTHOUGH WAA
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL HELP BRING HIGHS TO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS, DEVELOPING A SFC AND 850MB LOW TRACKING ACROSS OK
THURSDAY MORNING. CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON, BUT OPTED TO GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AIR IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA CLOSER TO THE LOW WHERE THERE IS SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT, AND THAT INCLUDES THE TYPICALLY MORE MOIST NAM. FURTHER
NORTH TOWARDS THE KS/NE BORDER, SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER MOISTURE
QUALITY, WHICH IS PROBABLY WHY HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
UP INTO NEBRASKA AS OPPOSED TO FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER, LIFT IS
WEAKER IN NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA. OVERALL, CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES IMPROVE SOMEWHAT HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS A SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND SATURATION
THROUGH THE COLUMN INCREASES. EVEN THEN, LIFT LOOKS RATHER WEAK AND
PRECIPITATION MAY BE BRIEF AT ANY ONE SPOT IF IT OCCURS.
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW REMAIN AT LESS THAN 50% AND POPS
REMAIN BETWEEN 10-30%.
THE GREATER CONFIDENCE AND HIGHER IMPACT LIES IN THE COLDER AIR THAT
WILL WORK ITS WAY IN THURSDAY AND THE REST OF THE WEEK. CAA ENSUES
BEHIND THE COMPACT SHORTWAVE THURSDAY, LIMITING HIGHS TO THE 20S
AREA-WIDE. THEN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR STRENGTHENS THE CAA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO REACH THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO. NBM GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES THERE MAY ONLY BE A FEW
POCKETS OF -15F WIND CHILLS (COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA) WHILE
THE LREF SUGGESTS A 30-50% CHANCE OF REACHING THAT THRESHOLD. IN ANY
CASE, EXPECT SUBZERO WIND CHILLS THAT MORNING AND WE'LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINE. MODELS STILL AREN'T IN AGREEMENT
ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT BRINGS LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES TO MAINLY NORTHERN KS SATURDAY NIGHT. THAT KEEPS BOTH
POPS AND PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW LIMITED TO 20-40%.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES, BRINGING HIGHS BACK TO THE LOW 40S.
THAT BEING SAID, TEMPERATURE SPREADS WIDEN SOMEWHAT BY THAT TIME
PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
VFR AT TERMINALS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH FOCUS ON
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING FROM THE WEST. KMHK
IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE 4-5KFT CIGS AFT 10Z AS A COLD FRONT BACKS
WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 KTS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...PRIETO
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