408
FXUS63 KTOP 291037
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
437 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLURRIES POSSIBLE TODAY WITH LOW SNOW CHANCES (20-30%) LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY AND RETURNING TO NORTHERN KS SATURDAY NIGHT.
- COLD AIR RETURNS TODAY AND STICKS AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY. WIND
CHILLS SATURDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST BETWEEN -5 AND -15F.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW (20-40% CHANCE) MAY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 436 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRAVERSING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO KS WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED 850MB AND SFC LOWS SITUATED NEARBY IN THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL TREK SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OK TODAY, BRINGING NNE WINDS AND BUILDING CAA
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON,
ENDING THE BRIEF WARM-UP THIS WEEK. IN TERMS OF SNOW CHANCES, THE
NAM NEST IS BY FAR THE MOST ROBUST OF ALL THE SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
WITH ITS COVERAGE AND BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL INTO NORTHERN KS OUT
OF NE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN THAT HAS
BACKED OFF WITH ITS 06Z RUN COMPARED TO ITS 00Z OUTPUT. THE OTHER
CAMS VARY A BIT IN THEIR COVERAGE AND SOUTHERN EXTENT, BUT GENERALLY
KEEP MOST SNOW BANDS NORTH OF THE KS/NE BORDER. OVERALL,
FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS RATHER WEAK AND SOUNDINGS DON'T LOOK ANY MORE
IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF LIFT WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. LIFT
MIGHT BE A LITTLE BETTER IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA CLOSER TO
THE LOW, BUT THE LOW-LEVEL AIR IS DRIER THERE. PERHAPS THERE COULD
BE JUST ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME FLURRIES, BUT IT WOULD SEEM MUCH
MORE THAN THAT WOULD BE HARD TO COME BY. THERE IS ANOTHER SECONDARY
VORT MAX THAT COMES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO OK THIS EVENING, AND
ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MIGHT SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
MOISTURE QUALITY BASED ON SOUNDINGS, THE LIFT DOESN'T LOOK MUCH
BETTER THAN TODAY. AS SUCH, HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AND FOCUSED ON NORTH
CENTRAL KS TONIGHT. SIMILAR TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
AS LIFT AND MOISTURE DON'T LOOK TO CHANGE MUCH. HREF SNOW PROBS
INDICATE A 50% OR LESS CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING, AND MOST OF THAT IS CONFINED TO NORTHERN OR NORTH CENTRAL
KS. OVERALL WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPACT FROM ANY SNOW THAT FALLS.
WE DO SEE STRENGTHENED CAA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A MORE
NOTABLE SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS BRINGS HIGHS
DOWN TO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S BOTH DAYS, AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWS
BETWEEN 0 AND -5. EVEN WITH THE SFC RIDGE FOLLOWING THE UPPER WAVE
AND LIGHT WINDS, THERE COULD STILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO BRING WIND
CHILLS TO BORDERLINE ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THAT POTENTIAL, ALTHOUGH LREF PROBS FOR WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15
HAVE LOWERED SOME.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COMES NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH ANY SNOW WOULD BE, WITH THE EURO AND
CANADIAN MOST FAVORING NORTHERN KS WHILE THE GFS AND NAM KEEP THE
SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH NORTH. ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST A 20-40% CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE SNOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, SO SIMILAR POPS FROM THE
NBM SEEM REASONABLE.
THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO DAMPEN SOME INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE
INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS STILL FAVOR A WARMING TREND DURING THAT
TIME. PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
PACIFIC TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION, BUT IT MAY NOT BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING UNTIL IT MOVES FURTHER EAST. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTIES, POPS ARE LIMITED TO 20-40%. ALSO GIVEN THE
FORECAST TEMPERATURES IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF PRECIP OCCURS, IT
COULD START AS RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT
SNOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KTS THURSDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED LATER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CIGS AROUND 2KFT TO IMPACT
TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE.
COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, BUT IMPACTS
TO TERMINALS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
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