188
FXUS63 KTOP 292320
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
520 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES (<20%) ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY, MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED IF ANY AT ALL.
- LIGHT SNOW CHANCES (30-40%) RETURN SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A
WARM-UP BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A LARGE UPPER LOW ROTATES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE HAS HELPED TO
RETURN THE SUB-FREEZING AIR INTO THE AREA AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
ADVECT IN COOLER AIR IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD,
SOME SPORADIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK WAVES ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA CREATING
SOME LOW-END CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW REMAINS LOW (<15%) BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL WAVE
OF LIFT PUSHES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY MORNING THAT COULD
FURTHER INCREASE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN THAT AREA. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO NORTH-CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL KS WHERE LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERLAP THE BEST.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK COME OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS ARCTIC SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MORNING
LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 0 TO -5 DEGREE RANGE AS MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BECOME COMMON. WHILE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK
UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE, WINDCHILLS FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY THROUGH
THE MID MORNING HOURS MAY APPROACH -15 DEGREES SO MAY SEE THE NEED
FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY. OPTED NOT TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD AREAS SEEING WINDCHILLS TO -15
IS LOW AT THIS TIME - SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GIVES NEAR 0
PERCENT CHANCES FOR WINDCHILL VALUES TO EXCEED -15 DEGREES. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AGAIN INCREASE SOME CHANCES FOR
SOME SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. AGAIN, WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT A FEW PLACES MAY SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN KANSAS.
WARMER, MORE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTH AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN A WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE PNW TUESDAY THAT
COULD BRING SOME POPS, BUT THERE STILL IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME, SO CONFIDENCE
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR WEST IS LOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
LOWER, AT TIMES LIMITING STRATUS LOOKS TO BE THE RULE THROUGH
THIS FORECAST. SOME CLOUD AROUND FL020 IS NOTED NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS BUT NOT SHOWN MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION NEAR TOP AND
FOE. HAVE KEPT TEMPO FOR THIS AT MHK FOR A FEW HOURS AND WILL
WATCH TRENDS. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY AFTER
15Z BUT MAY NOT REACH EAST TO TOP AND FOE. CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD
SPECIFICS IS LOW. BRIEF -SN CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT MHK AFTER 11Z
BUT SHOULD STAY WEST OF TOP AND FOE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GRIESEMER
AVIATION...POAGE
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