577
FXUS63 KTOP 300831
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
231 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IS FORECAST TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING TODAY AND SATURDAY.
- SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE (15-30% CHANCE) ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
- A SECOND CHANCE OF SNOW (20-50%) IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN ANY SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA WITH RIDGING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS PLACED THE FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. SURFACE
OBS PLACED A 1045MB HIGH NORTH OF MN WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ALL THE
WAY TO THE GULF COAST.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THE ENSEMBLES/NBM SHOW SMALL SPREAD IN THE POTENTIAL
OUTCOMES. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY A
COUPLE SHORTWAVES THAT PASS OVERHEAD TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WITH THIS HIGH ARE EXPECTED TO BE SATURDAY MORNING WITH
READINGS BELOW ZERO. BUT AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT, WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS WIND CHILLS ARE NOT MUCH
COLDER THAN THE FORECAST TEMPS AND REMAIN MARGINAL FOR A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY. HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE AT THIS
TIME.
MODELS HAVE SOME ORGANIZED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE
SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE A MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. BUT THERE IS NOT A LOT OF VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN THE CLOUD
ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT MEASURABLE SNOW WILL DEVELOP. THE SNOW CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON AS COLD AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION INCREASES WITH THE ARCTIC SURFACE RIDGE. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SATURDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION WITH SOME MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS WAVE. BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE WAVE. SO ANY SNOW CONTINUES TO LOOK LIGHT. SINCE THERE
IS A REASONABLE CONSENSUS IN THE PATTERN AND A SIGNAL FOR LIGHT QPF
HAVE KEPT THE 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE POPS FROM THE NBM ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES.
AS IS TYPICAL WITH THE NUMERICAL MODELS, SPREADS START TO INCREASE
BY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR
FROM THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z
ENSEMBLES MAINLY SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE FEATURES. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE NOT WAVERED FROM THE
NBM. THE ONE THING TO NOTE FROM THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS IS THEY
INCREASE COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS SUGGEST HIGHS COULD BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT THE NBM HAS. CONFIDENCE IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE LOW AS WELL. ONLY A FEW
OF THE 12Z ENSEMBLES MEMBERS DEVELOP ANY QPF WITH ABOUT 90% OF THE
MEMBERS KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY. THE 00Z ECMWF, WHICH IS THE MOST
ROBUST WITH QPF, IS ALSO FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE WAVE THAN
OTHER 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS, THOUGH
MVFR CEILINGS STILL LOOK LIKELY AT MHK AROUND 15Z THROUGH AROUND
00Z. CEILINGS AT TOP AND FOE STILL LOOK TO BE JUST ABOVE MVFR
AROUND THIS SAME PERIOD AS BETTER MOISTURE REMAINS IN CENTRAL
KANSAS. INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE AT MHK BUT TOO
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE FOR A MENTION WITH IMPACTS
BELOW MVFR UNLIKELY.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...POAGE
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