540
FXUS63 KTOP 301940
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
140 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IS FORECAST TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING TODAY AND SATURDAY.
- SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE (15-30% CHANCE) ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
- A SECOND CHANCE OF SNOW (20-50%) IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN ANY SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE H5
TROUGH THERE WAS ENOUGH ASCENT FOR AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE
AREA OF SNOW WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE MAY BE A DUSTING UP TO A HALF INCH OF
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF A CONCORDIA TO EMPORIA
LINE.
TONIGHT, SKIES WILL CLEAR AND A SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO
0 TO 5 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL INDICES WILL ONLY DROP TO 5 TO 14
BELOW ZERO, SO A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
SATURDAY, WILL BE OUR COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
SATURDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DCVA AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH ASCENT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE NORTHWEST MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE
ARCTIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE THE SOUTHEAST, ACROSS THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 40S. A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL COOL
HIGHS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY WITH MID 30S EAST TO LOWER 40S WEST. HIGHS
WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER TO MID 50S AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM H5 RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. LOOKS
AS IF THE ARCTIC AIR MASSES WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EAST CENTRAL US.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
TOP AND FOE WILL KEEP VFR STRATUS CEILINGS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW. MHK
MAY SEE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND DURING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW,
CEILINGS MAY DROP TO 2200 FEET AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
TO 4 TO 5 SM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS EVENING, SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...GARGAN
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