231
FXUS63 KTOP 310441
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1041 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO AND WIND CHILLS AROUND
-10 DEGREES.
- CHANCES (20-50%) FOR SNOW INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING,
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
- WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE H5
TROUGH THERE WAS ENOUGH ASCENT FOR AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE
AREA OF SNOW WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE MAY BE A DUSTING UP TO A HALF INCH OF
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF A CONCORDIA TO EMPORIA
LINE.
TONIGHT, SKIES WILL CLEAR AND A SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO
0 TO 5 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL INDICES WILL ONLY DROP TO 5 TO 14
BELOW ZERO, SO A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
SATURDAY, WILL BE OUR COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
SATURDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DCVA AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH ASCENT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE NORTHWEST MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE
ARCTIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE THE SOUTHEAST, ACROSS THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 40S. A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL
COOL HIGHS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY WITH MID 30S EAST TO LOWER 40S
WEST. HIGHS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER TO
MID 50S AS A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. LOOKS AS IF THE ARCTIC AIR MASSES WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE AREA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST CENTRAL US.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.
LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW APPROACHES TERMINALS
BETWEEN 00-06Z, BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THIS BAND IS
UNCERTAIN. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS FOR NOW.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
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