504
FXUS63 KTOP 311717
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1117 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS THIS EVENING.
SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINOR WITH MAINLY A DUSTING EXPECTED.
- THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT.
- OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WITH MORE MODERATE
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLANS PER THE 08Z WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. ONE SHORTWAVE WAS PROPAGATING EAST OF THE MS RIVER AS
ANOTHER WAVE DUG SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SURFACE OBS
SHOWED A 1043 MB HIGH BUILDING INTO NORTHEAST KS WITH VERY DRY AIR AS
NOTED FROM THE 00Z TOP RAOB.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH
TODAY. MODELS SHOW AN ORGANIZED BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH
SOME MID LEVEL SATURATION. BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT
OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR TO OVERCOME WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ADVECTION NOTED FROM THE MODEL PROGS. WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING
SOME LIGHT SNOW BY THE EARLY EVENING, HAVE CONTINUED WITH SOME
CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT DUE TO THE INITIAL DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WITH AMOUNTS
ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP HIGHS
WELL BELOW FREEZING TODAY, ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGING WEAKENS QUICKLY SUNDAY WITH A
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND. HAVE SKIES CLEARING OUT WITH GOOD
INSOLATION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WARMING TEMPS INTO THE 40S. MAY
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A STRATOCU DECK FORMING OFF OF THE REMAINING
SNOW COVER AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP. BUT TEMPS SHOULD
QUICKLY MODERATE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY WITH A WEAKER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACCOMPANYING IT.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS WAVE IS LOW BECAUSE THE
MAJORITY OF THE 12Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAIL TO DEVELOP PRECIP. THE
ENSEMBLES WOULD SUGGESTS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS
THE WAVE PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NBM HAS POPS IN THE 10 TO 20
PERCENT RANGE AND THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE PATTERN. CLUSTER
ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS MODELS HAVE A SIMILAR IDEA
WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE WITH THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS. THE SPREAD IN TEMPS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ARE ALSO INDICATIVE OF A PATTERN WITH SOME
BETTER PREDICTABILITY. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE NOT ALTERED THE NBM
INITIALIZATION. BIG PICTURE IS NORTHWEST FLOW IS LIKELY TO PERSIST
WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH. LIMITED MOISTURE OR ABILITY
FOR PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW MEANS PRECIP CHANCES ARE PRETTY
LIMITED. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO MODERATE WITH NO OBVIOUS ARCTIC INTRUSION
SEEN THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD IS TIMING AND COVERAGE OF A
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS BAND SHOULD GENERALLY ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS AT ANY ONE
POINT, AND BE RATHER LOW-IMPACT, BUT MAY BRIEFLY BRING MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF A FEW MILES. AWAY FROM ANY STEADIER
SNOW, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5 KFT
CLEARING TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY STAY SOUTHWESTERLY
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...REESE
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